Election Day Turnout Battle: Parties Mobilize Voters

With election day approaching, all Israeli political parties are intensely focusing on voter turnout, recognizing it as the sole determinant of the final results in a closely contested race. The previous election saw nearly 200,000 votes wasted when Meretz and Balad fell below the electoral threshold, significantly impacting the outcome. In the last election, the overall turnout was 70.63%. Specific cities show varied turnout patterns: Bnei Brak, a predominantly Haredi city, had a 76.53% turnout in 2022, while Tel Aviv, leaning towards opposition parties, saw only 59.62% among its larger electorate. Ramat HaSharon had 71.42% turnout, Jerusalem 61.60%, and Ashdod, a Likud stronghold, recorded 64.39% with 28.92% voting for Likud.

Major parties are establishing extensive campaign headquarters to maximize voter turnout in their strongholds, employing detailed demographic and geographic targeting. The "Change Bloc" parties are coordinating efforts, believing high turnout will benefit them collectively and potentially raise the electoral threshold, thereby preventing smaller parties like those led by Ofer Vinter and Yoaz Hendel from entering the Knesset. A senior figure in the Change Bloc noted that while numerically they were stronger in the past, the current government, led by Netanyahu, is facing a more organized opposition bloc this time.

Conversely, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is concerned about the fragmentation of the right-wing bloc, with at least nine parties currently running, potentially siphoning votes. Netanyahu's attempts to persuade some parties to withdraw have been unsuccessful. He is prioritizing maximizing turnout for Likud and its allies while also aiming to reduce the number of competing parties. He has partnered with Bezalel Smotrich and the Religious Zionism party to establish a joint campaign headquarters focused on boosting turnout in Likud, Haredi, and religious cities, hiring hundreds of staff and volunteers for this purpose.

Netanyahu is also collaborating with Shas to energize voters in Haredi cities, addressing past unfulfilled promises and the stalled conscription exemption law. He is issuing conciliatory messages to the Haredi public on regional radio, promising a conscription exemption law before the government is formed and deeming the current arrest of draft dodgers "unseemly," aiming to prevent apathy or potential unrest that could harm his campaign.

The counting of approximately 600,000 "double envelopes" (votes from special polling stations like accessible polling booths, embassies, and evacuated citizens) will require significant logistical preparation. The Knesset is allocating a closed floor for the count, expected to last two days and be broadcast live for the first time. Consequently, initial projections on election night will only indicate trends, with final results, including the double envelopes, anticipated by Thursday evening.