Israeli Elections: Arab Parties Could Be Kingmakers, Professor Explains

Professor Amal Jamal, Dean of Social Sciences at Tel Aviv University, believes the upcoming Israeli elections are pivotal, with the potential to shift government composition and remove figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from decision-making roles. He highlighted that Arab parties could play a decisive part in forming the next government, noting that the experience of the past four years under the current government makes any change significant, even if policies don't radically alter. Jamal suggested that sidelining Ben-Gvir and Smotrich might pave the way for gradual political shifts.

Jamal emphasized that the Israeli parliamentary system allows Arab parties to influence government formation, even amidst ideological differences. He stated that Arab parties might be crucial in forming an alternative government this time, as forming a coalition without their support could be difficult. Current estimates suggest Arab parties could win between 12 and 14 seats, with some polls indicating higher numbers. He also stressed the importance of how these parties leverage their seats in political negotiations and their ability to agree on joint working mechanisms.

Regarding potential scenarios, Jamal cautioned against dismissing the possibility of an alliance between Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman, despite their disagreements. He theorized that Lieberman might see an opportunity to become prime minister, which could alter opposition calculations and affect the chances of forming an alternative government. Jamal also considered the scenario of the Likud party winning few seats, potentially leading to Netanyahu's exit from politics, though he deemed this unlikely.

Jamal proposed that Arab parties should coordinate their positions and divide roles, with one potentially joining the government coalition under suitable conditions while another exerts pressure from the outside. This model, he explained, could allow Arab parties to influence decision-making both inside and outside the coalition. He also noted that Haredi parties could be influential due to their desire for coalition participation and resources, and that disagreements over Haredi conscription might be negotiable or postponed depending on the post-election political landscape.

Jamal warned that increased Arab voter turnout or parliamentary representation alone does not guarantee policy changes, citing past disappointments where high representation did not translate into tangible results, potentially affecting future participation. He also pointed out that new elections, if a government cannot be formed, might occur under different circumstances, possibly impacting voter turnout among Israelis living abroad. He urged opposition parties to consider these risks and not take Arab participation for granted.

In conclusion, Jamal called for broad participation from Arab citizens in the elections, stating that the outcomes would directly impact government policies affecting the Arab community. He reiterated that removing Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from decision-making centers is a key objective of these elections, and that Arab voter turnout could significantly influence government formation and the future political phase.