Arab Vote Could Reshape Israeli Election Landscape, Experts Say
Translated & summarized from i24NEWS Arabic by baba
Arab voter turnout in Israel's 2026 elections is projected to rise significantly, potentially impacting the political landscape. Experts suggest this increase could influence the balance of power, though a higher Jewish turnout might still favor right-wing parties. Efforts are underway by the right-wing bloc to consolidate votes, potentially securing a majority. Arab leaders stress the importance of participation for political influence.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Arab voter turnout in Israel's 2026 elections is projected to reach 62-63%, a notable increase from the previous election.
- A Madgam Institute poll indicates Arab parties could secure 14 seats, with potential to reach 16 if turnout exceeds 70%.
- Right-wing parties are reportedly pressuring smaller parties to withdraw and consolidate votes, potentially gaining 7 seats.
- Experts believe the Arab vote is a "pivotal axis" that could influence the election outcome.
- Arab leaders are calling for increased participation to counter voter apathy and achieve political change.
As Israel approaches the 2026 Knesset elections, the political scene is marked by uncertainty, with no single bloc appearing capable of securing a decisive majority, according to recent polls. Ihab Qaddah, Director of Research in the Arab Society at the Madgam Institute for Research, stated in an interview with i24NEWS that Arab voter turnout is showing a significant increase, potentially reaching 62-63%, up from 53% in the last election. However, he noted that a concurrent rise in Jewish voter turnout, expected to reach around 80%, could maintain a representation gap, giving Jewish parties an advantage of 3 to 4 seats.
A Madgam Institute poll suggests the Joint List could win 9 seats and the United List 5, totaling 14 seats for Arab parties. This number could rise to 16 seats if Arab voter turnout exceeds 70% on election day. Meanwhile, the right-wing bloc, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is reportedly intensifying efforts to pressure smaller parties, such as the Economy Party led by Yaron Zelekha and the "Amcha Israel" party, to withdraw and avoid splitting votes. The Madgam Institute estimates that if these votes are absorbed by the right, it could gain an additional 7 seats, shifting the balance from a 55-51 advantage for the "change" bloc to a 58-seat majority for the right, potentially paving the way for a Netanyahu-led government.
Qaddah emphasized that the Arab parties and the Arab community are a "pivotal axis" capable of preventing the right from achieving a comfortable majority or shifting the equation in favor of the "change" bloc. He urged the Arab community to overcome a sense of "disbelief in electoral efficacy" and to activate local initiatives to boost turnout, asserting that active participation is the sole path to achieving political change and directly influencing daily decisions affecting citizens' lives.
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