Arab Voters Expected to Turn Out in Record Numbers, Influencing Election Outcomes

A significant surge in voter turnout among Israel's Arab population is anticipated in the upcoming elections, with polling institute Stat-Net's Director General Yosef Makladah predicting a turnout of 68%-69%, a substantial increase from the 45% recorded in 2021 and 53% in 2022. This heightened participation is driven by a desire to unseat the current government, particularly under Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, and to combat rising violence and crime. Makladah, who also polls for Channel 13 in the Arab sector, stated that the motivation stems from the "violence, crime, murder, and home demolitions" of the past four years, which are largely associated with the Ministry of National Security. He believes Arab citizens view voting as a civic duty to change the status quo, with top priorities being the downfall of the current government and the eradication of crime, which are seen as interconnected.

Makladah forecasts that 85% of Arab voters will cast ballots for Arab parties, with the remaining 15% voting for Zionist parties, and about 10% still undecided. Within the Arab parties, he estimates a 60-40 split between the Joint List and Ra'am. If Arab parties secure 15 seats, he projects 9 for the Joint List and 6 for Ra'am. Historically, Arab voter turnout has lagged behind the national average, but increased unity among Arab parties has correlated with higher participation. In past elections where Arab parties ran on a unified list, turnout ranged from 59% to 65%, yielding 13-15 seats. Conversely, separate runs resulted in fewer seats. Despite running in three separate lists in 2022, turnout rose to 53%, though the party Balad's failure to pass the electoral threshold cost them approximately 3.8 mandates.

The lower historical turnout is partly attributed to a segment of the Arab electorate believing that the identity of the governing coalition has little impact on their lives. However, the perceived lack of difference between governments led by Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition figures like Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid has shifted. The article notes that the annual number of murders in the Arab community has doubled from an average of 121 in 2021-2022 to 242 in 2023-2024, a period coinciding with Minister Ben-Gvir's tenure and the ongoing war in Gaza. This situation has convinced many voters that there is a stark difference between the current government, led by Netanyahu and including Ben-Gvir, and potential alternatives, making the prospect of another Ben-Gvir-Smotrich government highly undesirable.

Researcher Dr. Arik Rudnitzky from the Israel Democracy Institute observes that the two main Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, are conducting a "clean election campaign" against each other, a departure from previous elections focused on internal divisions. This is evidenced by their signing of an surplus agreement for the first time. Their campaigns emphasize that without their support, forming a government will be difficult, and that a larger Arab representation will reduce the likelihood of a Ben-Gvir-Smotrich government, despite the broader political system's reluctance to form coalitions with Arab parties.