Lula Secures Surprise Victory in Brazil's Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftist candidate, has won Brazil's presidential election in a dramatic and unexpected runoff victory against right-wing contender Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. With 99.9% of votes counted, Lula secured 51.77% compared to Bolsonaro's 48.23%. This result defied pre-election polls, which had predicted a narrow win for Bolsonaro, who had led in the first round by 2.2 million votes. Lula ultimately won by a larger margin of 4.3 million votes.

Bolsonaro's defeat is seen as a setback for former US President Donald Trump, as a right-wing victory would have expanded his influence in Latin America. For Israel, Lula's win is also disappointing. The incoming president, who will celebrate his 81st birthday and begin his fourth non-consecutive term, has been a strong critic of Israel, accusing it of genocide. Lula, in his victory speech in São Paulo, emphasized the importance of voting to protect democracy and prevent foreign interference, stating, "Brazil is not anyone's backyard." He called for social media regulation and pledged to govern for all Brazilians, working with a conservative Congress.

In his first reaction, Bolsonaro declared it "impossible to recognize the results" and vowed to seek their annulment, citing irregularities in voting hours. The election's swift results were due to Brazil's electronic voting machines. Voting hours were extended by two hours nationwide due to transportation disruptions in some areas, a move requested by Lula's campaign and approved by Brazil's Supreme Court. Bolsonaro's campaign also requested an extension due to rain in the south.

Bolsonaro's loss was surprising given he was the favorite entering the runoff, having won the first round with 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%. This outcome mirrored the 2022 election where Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro, leading to questions about the accuracy of polling. Historically, no candidate who came second in the first round had ever won the presidency in the second round until Lula's victory.

The candidates, Bolsonaro (45) and Lula (80), hold starkly opposing ideological views on issues ranging from US-Brazil relations and climate change to welfare policy. Lula's victory halts the conservative wave that had recently swept through Latin America, with wins in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. Brazil and Mexico, now led by center-left leaders, remain under such governance in the region.

Flávio Bolsonaro, like his father, has been a staunch supporter of Israel, with their movement known for its pro-Israel stance. He has visited Israel multiple times, toured the West Bank, and pledged to move Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem. His personal pastor, Estevam Hernandez, stated that if Bolsonaro had won, a victory visit to Israel, including to the Western Wall, would have been planned. In contrast, Lula has become one of Israel's harshest global critics, particularly after the October 7th attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza, accusing Israel of genocide and recalling Brazil's ambassador.

Both candidates faced corruption allegations. Bolsonaro admitted to seeking $12 million from a former banker to produce a film about his father. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup, currently under house arrest due to health issues. Lula campaigned by portraying Bolsonaro as a threat to democracy, while Bolsonaro promised a pardon for his father if elected. Lula also implemented costly incentives, such as debt relief for small businesses and free weekend public transport, to attract undecided voters.

Lula framed the election as a choice for Brazil's independence, portraying Bolsonaro as a puppet of Donald Trump. He emphasized defending the national flag over the US flag. This rhetoric was amplified by past criticisms of Trump's policies, including tariffs and sanctions. Bolsonaro, conversely, highlighted his closeness to the White House and advocated for better deals with the Trump administration, particularly concerning rare mineral resources.