Iran Plans to Disrupt Internet by Targeting Undersea Cables

Iran has developed plans to strike communication cables in the Persian Gulf and prevent their repair, according to high-ranking Iranian security officials cited by Reuters on October 25. These plans are reportedly intended as a response to potential future US-Israeli strikes, though details on execution remain undisclosed. A public threat was also issued by Yadollah Javani, a senior figure in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who warned of attacks on seven major internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. These cables, largely unknown to the public, form a critical part of global internet infrastructure, carrying over 99% of international traffic, according to the UN's International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Damage to these cables could disrupt internet services, cloud computing, financial transactions, and government operations. However, TeleGeography data suggests less than 1% of global internet capacity passes through the Strait of Hormuz, implying the actual impact might be less severe than threatened. The extent of disruption would vary by country and provider, with nations like Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait having terrestrial connections to Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait also to Iraq. Nevertheless, even countries with alternative routes could face congestion and slowdowns if multiple cables are damaged simultaneously. The ITU warns that such disruptions could also affect access to banking, medical, and educational services. The Guardian also reported that Tehran has threatened attacks on data centers and AI facilities in the Persian Gulf in response to further attacks. Communication cables connecting Israel to Europe run through the Mediterranean Sea, such as the JONAH cable operated by Bezeq International connecting Israel to Italy. This route does not pass through Hormuz, so a strike on Persian Gulf cables would not directly disconnect Israel from the internet. However, the potential for regional disruptions to affect specific services in Israel remains unclear. Globally, damage to cables in the Strait of Hormuz would primarily affect communications within the Persian Gulf, while cables in the Red Sea are crucial for Europe-Asia and East Africa links. Undersea cables experience around 150-200 accidental damages annually, mostly from fishing and ship anchors, according to the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC). While intentional sabotage is a risk, it's not the primary cause. Communication networks are designed with redundancy, allowing traffic to reroute when a single cable is damaged. However, simultaneous damage to multiple cables strains these backup systems. Satellite communication cannot fully replace undersea cables due to lower data capacity and higher costs, according to TeleGeography. Furthermore, repairing damaged cables in conflict zones is complicated by the need for permits to enter affected waters and the vulnerability of repair ships. The precedent of a six-month repair period for three cables damaged in the Red Sea in 2024 highlights the serious, long-term consequences of even a brief disruption if repairs are hindered.