Yisrael Beiteinu Leads Likud in Reader Poll Ahead of Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
A Newsru.co.il reader poll of 3,070 participants shows Yisrael Beiteinu leading with 31% support, followed by Likud at 23%. The survey suggests Russian-speaking voters could influence 15-17 Knesset seats. Benjamin Netanyahu is the preferred prime minister candidate for 32% of respondents, while Avigdor Lieberman is favored by 24%. The poll's predictive model forecasts Likud winning 23 seats and Yashar 21.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Yisrael Beiteinu leads Likud with 31% support in a Newsru.co.il reader poll.
- Russian-speaking voters may influence 15-17 Knesset seats in the upcoming elections.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is the preferred prime minister for 32% of poll respondents.
- Avigdor Lieberman is the favored prime minister candidate for 24% of respondents.
- The poll's predictive model forecasts Likud winning 23 seats and Yashar 21 seats.
- Leader personality and security are the top factors influencing voter choice.
A large-scale reader poll conducted by Newsru.co.il indicates that approximately 15-17 Knesset seats could be influenced by Russian-speaking voters in the upcoming elections. The survey, held on October 22-23, involved 3,070 respondents. The majority (57%) identified as right-wing, 32% as centrist, and 3% as left-wing. While the outlet stresses this reflects its audience and not a formal sociological study, its two decades of experience suggest the results are symptomatic.
Eighty-seven percent of respondents have decided on their vote, with 5-10% still considering, and 2% not intending to vote. Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, emerged as the leading party with 31% support, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 23%, and Naftali Bennett's Bayahad movement with 12%. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party garnered 8% support.
Analyzing political leanings, the right-wing segment favors Likud (36%) over Yisrael Beiteinu (29%). Centrists prefer Yisrael Beiteinu (35%) and Bayahad (25%), while the left-wing segment strongly supports the Democrats (53%). The poll estimates Yisrael Beiteinu could secure about 5 Russian-speaking mandates, Likud 4, and Bayahad 2.
Regarding the prime minister position, 32% chose Benjamin Netanyahu, a 5% increase from September data. Avigdor Lieberman received 24% support, Naftali Bennett 15%, and Gadi Eisenkot 12%. Key factors for voters included leader personality (55%), security (52%), religion-state issues (47%), and ideology (46%). Statements by Donald Trump reportedly had little positive impact and sometimes a negative one.
The poll's model predicts Likud could win 23 seats, Yashar 21, Bayahad 13, Yisrael Beiteinu 11, and Otzma Yehudit and Shas 9 each. Amcha Israel and Miluimnikim ve-Kalkalit are not expected to pass the electoral threshold. Only 32% believe a stable coalition will be formed, with the same percentage predicting a Netanyahu-led government, and 29% expecting a coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot's bloc.
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