New Poll Shows Eisenkot Leading Netanyahu, Bennett Surges Ahead of Knesset Vote

A Channel 12 poll released Wednesday evening indicates a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape just six days before the upcoming Knesset elections. The Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to win 23 seats, surpassing the Likud party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, which is forecast to secure 19 seats. Naftali Bennett's Bayahad party saw an increase to 15 seats, gaining one seat since the previous poll, while the Likud dropped two seats. Notably, Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party has crossed the electoral threshold, projected to win four seats after failing to do so in the prior survey.

Despite the entry of Amcha Yisrael into the seat distribution calculations, the overall balance of power between the blocs remains largely unchanged. The opposition bloc is predicted to garner 69 seats, comprising 55 seats for Zionist parties and 14 for Arab lists. In contrast, Netanyahu's bloc is expected to secure 51 seats. The Joint List and the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, are each projected to win nine seats. Shas, under Aryeh Deri, and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, are each expected to obtain eight seats. Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, and United Torah Judaism, led by Yaakov Asher, are each projected to win seven seats.

Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party is forecast to lose one seat, settling at six. Mansour Abbas's United Arab List is expected to win five seats, and Amcha Yisrael, led by Winter, is projected for four seats. The Reserve Soldiers and the Economy list, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, despite an increase in support to 2.8%. Other lists, including the Haredi Public and the "Blacks, Shield of the Torah World" list, received negligible support.

The poll also examined preferences for prime minister. Eisenkot garnered 44% support when pitted against Netanyahu (33%), while Bennett received 40% against Netanyahu's 37%. In a head-to-head with Lieberman, Netanyahu secured 38% compared to Lieberman's 29%.

Regarding voter turnout, 75% of respondents indicated their intention to vote, a higher percentage than in recent Israeli elections. Those supporting Netanyahu's bloc showed a 76% intention to vote, while supporters of the change bloc indicated an 82% intention to vote, suggesting a higher level of engagement among the latter.

The survey also explored scenarios involving smaller parties failing to cross the threshold. If Amcha Yisrael withdraws, the Hendel-Zelicha list might cross the threshold, but the opposition bloc would decrease to 54 seats and Netanyahu's bloc to 48. If only the Hendel-Zelicha list withdraws, Amcha Yisrael would gain a seat, and Smotrich's party would lose one, without altering the bloc distribution. If both lists fail to cross the threshold, the opposition bloc would strengthen to 57 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc would fall to 49 seats. These results come amid a close race, with differing poll outcomes and the potential impact of small parties and actual turnout on the final results.