Newsru.co.il Poll Shows Yisrael Beiteinu Leading Likud in Reader Preferences

A poll conducted by Newsru.co.il between October 22-23, surveying 3,070 respondents, indicates that 57% of participants identify as right-wing, 32% as centrist, and 3% as left-wing. While acknowledging the poll's limitations as a website audience survey rather than a formal sociological study, Newsru.co.il suggests its results are indicative based on over 20 years of similar surveys.

According to the poll, 87% of respondents have decided on their vote for the 26th Knesset elections, with 5-10% undecided but intending to vote, and 2% not planning to vote. Among the website's audience, Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) is the preferred party with 31%, followed by Likud (led by Benjamin Netanyahu) at 23%, and Tikva Hadasha (led by Naftali Bennett) at 12%. Other parties like Derech Eretz (Gadi Eisenkot) received 8%, Religious Zionism-Zehut (Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin) 6%, The Democrats (Yair Golan) 4%, and Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) 4%.

Compared to a survey from 1.5 months prior, Likud saw a 5% increase in support among the audience, reaching 23%, while Yisrael Beiteinu dropped 1% to 31%. Tikva Hadasha also gained 3% to reach 12%. The poll also indicated that right-religious bloc parties currently in the coalition would receive nearly 33% of the audience's votes, while the conditional Zionist opposition would garner over 55%.

When segmented by political identification, right-wing respondents favored Likud (36%) and Yisrael Beiteinu (29%). Centrist respondents preferred Yisrael Beiteinu (35%) and Tikva Hadasha (25%), while left-wing respondents overwhelmingly supported The Democrats (53%).

Regarding the potential impact of Russian-speaking voters, estimated to influence 15-17 Knesset seats, the poll suggests Yisrael Beiteinu could secure 5 seats from this demographic, Likud 4, and Tikva Hadasha 2. Other parties receive smaller portions.

In a question about who is most fit to be prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu received 32% of the vote, a 5% increase from September, followed by Avigdor Lieberman at 24% and Naftali Bennett at 15%. Key factors influencing voter choice included the leader's personality (55%), security policy (52%), and religion-state policy (47%). The poll also noted that a statement of support for Netanyahu from former US President Donald Trump had little to no positive impact on the audience's choice, and in some cases, a negative one. Most respondents stated political advertising had no influence, though online and social media ads were perceived more positively than phone calls or SMS campaigns.

A majority (50%) expressed indifference towards the use of artificial intelligence in political advertising, with 39% finding it irritating. Looking ahead, 31% of respondents believe election results will significantly differ from published forecasts, while 22% expect general consistency. A projected Knesset seat distribution based on the survey's forecast model shows Likud with 23 seats, Derech Eretz with 21, and Yisrael Beiteinu with 11. The model predicts the right-religious bloc would secure 54 seats and the conditional Zionist opposition 53.

When asked who would win the most seats, 44% predicted Derech Eretz, and 38% predicted Likud. Regarding coalition formation, 32% believe a stable coalition will be formed, while 23% anticipate new elections.