Netanyahu's Right-Wing Base May Abandon Him Despite Shared Ideals

Right-wing voters who are leaving the Likud party are not necessarily changing their core beliefs, which still emphasize security, settlement expansion, and combating terrorism. However, they have lost faith that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the leader who can deliver these goals. An upcoming election may reveal that the right-wing movement is larger than Netanyahu's representation of it, potentially shattering the equation he built his rule upon: that he and the right are one and the same. While the public may continue to support nationalistic stances, settlement building, and a strong response to terrorism, they might simultaneously deny Netanyahu the majority needed to govern.

The article suggests that Netanyahu's Likud party could suffer a significant blow, while figures like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir might gain strength. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman could also attract votes from individuals who remain ideologically right-wing but have become disillusioned with Netanyahu. Recent polls indicate a sharp decline for Likud and a lack of a clear majority for Netanyahu's bloc, though the potential shift of a candidate named Winter could influence the final count.

The analysis posits that voters moving from Likud to parties like Bennett's or supporting Lieberman are not necessarily abandoning right-wing principles such as opposing a Palestinian state or supporting continued settlement in Judea and Samaria. Instead, they may desire a firm stance against terrorism and continued construction while simultaneously believing the Prime Minister has failed. Their votes, therefore, represent a change in leadership rather than a shift in worldview. Parties like Bennett's and Yisrael Beiteinu, and even former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, have made statements aligning with these nationalistic positions, indicating a broader trend among those seeking to replace Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's perceived failure to adequately address the systemic collapse that occurred on October 7th, and his subsequent handling of responsibility, is presented as a key factor in this leadership crisis. The article criticizes his focus on deflecting blame rather than acknowledging failure, explaining necessary changes, and initiating repairs. This approach, coupled with ongoing questions about the war's objectives and the protracted nature of the conflict, has deepened public distrust. The Qatar affair, involving suspicions around individuals close to Netanyahu, further exacerbates this crisis of confidence, particularly given the continued involvement of a close advisor implicated in the matter.

Furthermore, the article points to Netanyahu's political machine's efforts to undermine rivals within the right-wing camp, such as the pressure on Winter, as a political failure. Instead of uniting the right, Netanyahu's actions are seen as alienating potential partners and hindering the formation of a stable government. The piece concludes that while Netanyahu sought to make himself indispensable to the right's success, the upcoming elections may demonstrate that he has become an obstacle to it, with the public seeking a leadership that embodies nationalistic ideals alongside responsibility and credibility.