Likud Admits Failure as Right-Wing Bloc Risks Losing Up to Five Seats

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is facing concerns that smaller parties may fail to cross the electoral threshold, potentially costing the right-wing bloc up to five parliamentary seats. In the final week of the election campaign, Likud is working to both mobilize right-wing voters and prevent vote loss due to small parties that might not enter the Knesset. According to Maariv journalist Mati Tuchfeld, internal Likud warnings suggest that if these smaller lists remain in the race but fail to pass the threshold, the right-wing camp could lose as many as five mandates. This scenario would significantly reduce the bloc's chances of securing the 61 seats needed to form a government. Consequently, pressure has intensified on smaller parties, and Netanyahu's campaign has ramped up voter outreach.

Low turnout remains a challenge for the right, a traditional issue for Likud and the Religious Zionism party, and also noticeable among ultra-Orthodox parties this election. Right-wing voters historically vote less actively than supporters of anti-Netanyahu parties, requiring more effort and resources for mobilization. In contrast, opposition parties reportedly expect significant turnout without extensive campaigning, needing fewer resources. This makes every vote critical for Likud, as voters who abstain or vote for lists that don't pass the threshold can impact the final seat distribution.

Smaller parties, particularly those appealing to right-wing voters like Ofer Winter's party and the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and another leader, are a focus. Polls vary on whether these parties will pass the electoral threshold. Likud's efforts to weaken these lists or persuade them to withdraw have reportedly failed, leading to internal admissions of "complete failure." The problem for Netanyahu lies in two possibilities: either these parties fail to pass the threshold, wasting their votes, or they enter the Knesset and gain leverage in coalition negotiations, potentially against Netanyahu's interests. Other small lists, including Meoz and "HaTzibur Ha'Haredi" (The Haredi Public), could also contribute to this situation, with up to five potential mandates being lost if these lists don't pass the threshold.

In response to these concerns, Netanyahu has intensified his campaign, visiting multiple Likud strongholds daily to mobilize core supporters, persuade undecided voters, and boost turnout. His campaign believes many undecided voters are in these areas, supporting right-wing forces but undecided about voting. While some Likud members remain optimistic about reaching 61 seats, others are more pessimistic. Recent signs of increased activity among right-wing voters offer some hope, but the issue of smaller parties remains, potentially leading to a familiar scenario of inconclusive election results and coalition deadlock.

Netanyahu's final campaign week is focused not just on gaining seats, but crucially on ensuring votes within his political camp are not disenfranchised by failing to cross the electoral threshold.