Polls Show Lead for Eisenkot Bloc, But Unpredictable Voters Will Decide
Translated & summarized from Haaretz by baba
Israeli election polls show Gadi Eisenkot's bloc leading, but historical trends indicate final days and election day itself can cause significant shifts. Parties like Likud have historically excelled at mobilizing voters on election day, while smaller parties often struggle to cross the electoral threshold. Unpredictable voter groups, including those using double envelopes, may play a crucial role in determining the final outcome. The period following the election could be chaotic due to difficulties in accurately polling these key demographics.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Historical trends show significant voter shifts in the final days and on election day, impacting poll accuracy.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has historically excelled at mobilizing voters on election day.
- Naftali Bennett's party has risen in polls, potentially at the expense of Gadi Eisenkot's bloc.
- Several smaller parties, including Ofer Winter's, are struggling to cross the electoral threshold.
- Unpredictable voter groups, such as those using double envelopes, could significantly influence the final results.
As election day approaches, Israeli polls are offering a final snapshot, but historical trends suggest significant shifts can occur in the final days and on election day itself. The period between the last polls and the final results is often marked by unexpected changes, as seen in past elections. In 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party saw a surge from 20-22 seats to 30 due to a strong final campaign push and high Arab voter turnout. Similarly, in 2013, Yair Lapid gained significant momentum, exceeding his final poll numbers. Conversely, Moshe Feiglin's numbers plummeted below the electoral threshold due to a controversial incident.
These shifts are attributed to two main factors: minor media storms in the final days that can sway voters before damage can be repaired, and strategic voting. In the final stretch, voters may shift support to parties with a better chance of achieving their desired outcomes, even if those parties don't perfectly align with their personal views. Election day itself also brings changes, often benefiting parties with strong ground operations and the ability to mobilize voters, a tactic historically employed by Likud.
Naftali Bennett's party has seen a rise to 14-15 seats in recent polls, attributed to an aggressive campaign focusing on issues like Haredi draft evasion. This rise may come at the expense of Gadi Eisenkot's bloc, potentially creating a two-headed "change bloc." Meanwhile, Ofer Winter's party is struggling to cross the electoral threshold, with some suggesting this benefits Netanyahu's strategy. Other small parties, including new Haredi factions, are also polling below the threshold.
Netanyahu's bloc is projected to receive around 50 seats, with limited growth potential, making a path to a 61-seat majority difficult. Eisenkot's bloc is polling at 54-56 seats, and he hopes to form a government without the Joint List, potentially seeking support from Likud members. Despite a recent dip, Eisenkot's bloc has recovered, though it falls short of the 60 seats it held previously.
The final outcome may hinge on unpredictable voter demographics, including first-time voters, those voting abroad, and a significant number of voters using double envelopes. These latter groups, estimated to represent around 15 seats, include reservists, evacuees, and individuals with reported disabilities, whose voting patterns are difficult to accurately poll. The challenge in sampling these voters could impact the accuracy of exit polls and the final results, potentially leading to an uncertain period after election day.
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