Final Polls Show Tight Race Three Days Before Israeli Election
Translated & summarized from JDN by baba
Final polls released three days before the Israeli election show a tight race, with Yisrael Beiteinu led by Gadi Eisenkot leading in most surveys. Likud and Yamina are competing for second place, while smaller parties are close to the electoral threshold. Polls vary, especially regarding Likud's strength, and the final outcome may depend on parties crossing the threshold and vote distribution, impacting government formation.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Yisrael Beiteinu leads in most final election polls, with Likud and Yamina in a close race for second place.
- Polls show significant variation, particularly in the projected strength of the Likud party.
- Several smaller parties are hovering near or below the electoral threshold, potentially impacting bloc totals.
- The opposition bloc is projected to have a slight advantage over the coalition bloc in some surveys.
- The final outcome and government formation may hinge on parties crossing the electoral threshold.
With just three days remaining until the election, the latest polls indicate a close political contest for control of the government. The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to lead in most surveys, while Likud and Yamina are vying for second place. Smaller parties are hovering around the electoral threshold.
According to a Kan News poll, Yisrael Beiteinu would receive 22 seats, Likud 20, and Yamina 14. The Joint List is predicted to get 9 seats, with Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beiteinu, HaDemocratim, and Yahadut HaTorah each securing 8. Shas and Religious Zionism and Identity are projected at 7 seats, Ra'am at 5, and Handel and Zelicha at 4.
News 12's poll shows Yisrael Beiteinu leading with 23 seats, Likud with 21, and Yamina with 15. HaDemocratim would get 10 seats and the Joint List 9. Shas, Otzma Yehudit, and Yisrael Beiteinu are all predicted to receive 8 seats, Yahadut HaTorah 7, Religious Zionism and Identity 6, and Ra'am 5.
News 13's survey indicates Yisrael Beiteinu with 22 seats, Likud with 19, and Yamina with 14. HaDemocratim would secure 10 seats and the Joint List 9. Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, Yahadut HaTorah, Religious Zionism and Identity are all expected to get 8 seats, while Shas and Ra'am would receive 7 each.
Channel 15's poll shows Likud in the lead with 26 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu with 21, and Yamina with 12. The Joint List is projected at 9 seats, Yahadut HaTorah at 7, and Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and HaDemocratim at 8 each. Other parties are expected to gain between 4 and 6 seats, with some falling below the electoral threshold.
A Direct Poll survey places Yisrael Beiteinu at 23 seats, Likud at 21, and Yamina at 15. HaDemocratim is predicted to receive 10 seats and the Joint List 9. Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Otzma Yehudit are each expected to get 8 seats, Yahadut HaTorah 7, Religious Zionism and Identity 6, and Ra'am 5.
When divided into blocs, the opposition is projected to have 56 seats, Arab parties 14, and the coalition 50. Handel and Zelicha are reportedly struggling to pass the electoral threshold, even in internal polls of the "change bloc." Additionally, senior rabbis of the Religious Zionism party are expected to call for a withdrawal from the race. Handel and Zelicha are also finding it difficult to approach the required threshold.
The final polls suggest Yisrael Beiteinu has an advantage in most surveys, but there are discrepancies between the polling organizations, particularly concerning Likud's strength and seat distribution. The competition to cross the electoral threshold and secure every vote could determine the bloc configurations and the feasibility of forming a government.
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