Final Polls Show Tight Race Ahead of Knesset Elections
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Final polls released by Israeli television channels ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections show a tight race with no clear bloc majority. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc is projected to narrowly lead over Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition in some polls, while other surveys suggest a larger opposition advantage. Key parties like "Yashar" and Likud are neck-and-neck, and voter priorities range from cost of living to the October 7th failures and the war with Iran. Many respondents anticipate a continued stalemate in government formation.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Final Israeli election polls indicate a close race with no clear bloc majority.
- Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc is projected to win 52 seats, while Netanyahu's coalition gets 50 in one poll.
- The "Yashar" party leads individual party polls, followed closely by the Likud.
- Naftali Bennett's "B" party shows strengthening support in the final surveys.
- Voter priorities differ significantly between coalition and opposition supporters.
- A majority of respondents expect no bloc to achieve a clear majority to form a government.
As the polling window closes before the upcoming 26th Knesset elections on Tuesday, Israeli television channels have released their final projections, indicating a deadlock in bloc alignments. Gadi Eisenkot's party is leading among the larger parties, with the opposition bloc projected to secure 52 seats and the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu falling to 50 seats, according to a Kan 11 poll. The "Yashar" party is forecast to be the largest with 22 seats, followed by the Likud with 20. Naftali Bennett's "B" party is strengthening to 14 seats, with Shas receiving 7 and United Torah Judaism 8.
A Channel 12 poll presents a similar picture, with "Yashar" at 23 seats and Likud at 21, and "B" at 15. Shas is projected at 8 seats and United Torah Judaism at 7. This poll, which includes Arab parties in the bloc opposing Netanyahu, suggests the opposition bloc could reach 70 seats compared to 50 for the incumbent coalition.
Channel 13's survey gives "Yashar" 22 seats and Likud 19, with "B" in third place at 14. Shas is expected to get 7 seats and United Torah Judaism 8. According to this poll, Eisenkot's bloc would win 54 seats, Netanyahu's bloc 50, and Arab parties would receive 16 seats.
Across all surveys, Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party, the "Reservists and Economists" list led by Handel and Zelicha, and the "Haredi Public" party are expected to remain below the electoral threshold. Notably, for the first time since August, Netanyahu is not leading in suitability for prime minister, with polls showing an equal split between him and Naftali Bennett at 38% each. However, Netanyahu trails Eisenkot in all polls regarding suitability for prime minister.
The surveys also reveal differing priorities among voters. Channel 12 reports that the most significant issue for voters is the cost of living (21%), followed by the conscription law (17%) and the failures of October 7th (14%). However, coalition voters prioritize the war with Iran (21%), while opposition voters focus on the October 7th failures (28%). Over 70% of respondents expressed certainty about participating in the elections. A significant portion of respondents (33% in the Channel 13 poll) believe that no bloc will achieve a clear majority to form a government after the elections.
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