Hezbollah Pledges No Aid to Iran If Conflict Resumes

Hezbollah has informed Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that it will not intervene to assist Iran should fighting resume, according to a Saturday report by Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. Berri subsequently relayed this information to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh had previously told a group of lawmakers aligned with the "Shia Duo" during a visit to Beirut that Iran would not request Hezbollah's intervention if attacked by the United States, citing its own capabilities to counter such threats. Sources within the Lebanese parliament told Asharq Al-Awsat that Khatibzadeh clarified Iran's position, stating that due to the power imbalance with Israel, Hezbollah's involvement would not alter the conflict's outcome. He also noted Iran's understanding of Lebanon's delicate situation and its reluctance to ask Hezbollah to engage in an unbalanced confrontation, especially in light of a US warning conveyed to President Aoun by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which was then passed to Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

Sources suggested that Hezbollah is hesitant to commit to supporting Iran due to concerns about its popular base and the potential for a wave of displacement. This is exacerbated by Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz's threats to expand the security zone in southern Lebanon and target the southern suburbs, potentially displacing a million Shiites. Hezbollah is reportedly already struggling to accommodate displaced persons with financial aid.

Lebanese parliamentary sources emphasized that the general Shiite sentiment would not remain silent if Hezbollah were to intervene in support of Iran again, as it did in March. This contradicts Hezbollah's pledge to Berri not to intervene, which had previously caused embarrassment for Berri with Aoun and Salam. The report suggests that Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem's apparent failure to uphold this non-intervention pledge has created a crisis of confidence within the "Shia Duo," raising questions about decision-making within the party and the extent of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps influence.

Further complicating matters, Hezbollah leadership reportedly informed relevant parties, including Berri, that the party was not involved in rocket launches. However, they refrained from issuing a public statement, seemingly to allow Washington to intercede with Israel to prevent retaliation. Despite this, Berri was reportedly surprised by a statement from Hezbollah's War Media outlet claiming responsibility for the rocket launches in retaliation for the assassination of Ayatollah Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which led to Israel expanding its occupation south of the Litani River. Separately, two diplomats told i24NEWS last week that Iran had conveyed a message to Hezbollah stating, "We estimate that a US attack is a matter of time, you must also be prepared."