Hezbollah Pledges Non-Intervention if Iran is Attacked Amid Trump Threats

Hezbollah has recently reaffirmed a commitment to Lebanese leadership that it will not militarily intervene on Iran's behalf should U.S. President Donald Trump follow through on his threat to launch a "devastating" strike against the country after the midterm elections. The pledge was conveyed to Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who then informed President Michel Aoun, according to a report in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. This commitment comes amid an American warning delivered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call with Aoun, which was also shared with Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Hezbollah's caution stems from fears of unprecedented internal backlash from its Shiite support base, which may not tolerate another war for Tehran. Lebanese parliamentary sources indicated that the organization is already struggling to provide financial aid to displaced persons and cannot handle another wave of displacement. Hezbollah also fears Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's threat to expand the security zone in southern Lebanon and strike Beirut's southern suburbs, a move that could displace up to a million Shiite residents. This stance is reportedly backed by Tehran itself. During a recent visit to Beirut, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saied Khatibzadeh met with lawmakers aligned with the "Shiite duo" (Hezbollah and the Amal Movement) and clarified that Iran would not ask Hezbollah to join a conflict if attacked by the U.S. Khatibzadeh emphasized that Tehran understands Lebanon's delicate situation and does not intend to drag the organization into an unequal confrontation with Israel, which he believes would not alter the conflict's outcome. He added that Iran can defend itself and has made significant progress in its preparations to thwart any attack's objectives. However, Lebanon harbors doubts about whether Hezbollah will adhere to its word this time or succumb to Revolutionary Guard pressure, as occurred in March. Despite an earlier assurance from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem to Berri, Hezbollah fired six rockets at Israel in response to the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Initially, the organization's leadership denied involvement in closed talks with Berri but refrained from a public denial that could have allowed Washington to prevent an Israeli response. Later, Hezbollah's military wing officially claimed responsibility for the launches, embarrassing Berri before Aoun and Salam and leading to the IDF's expansion of control south of the Litani River towards Beaufort Castle and nearby towns. This breach of commitment in March caused a severe crisis of trust within the Shiite alliance and raised questions about who actually makes decisions in Hezbollah. The crisis is exacerbated by the lack of direct communication between Berri and Qassem, following numerous Israeli assassinations of Hezbollah leaders. Unlike the close relationship Berri had with former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who had direct influence with Iran's leadership, current communication occurs daily only through their political aides, Hussein Khalil and Ali Hassan Khalil, hindering swift resolution of disputes. Amidst the tension, relations between Amal and Hezbollah are limited to "political coexistence," with Berri distancing himself from Hezbollah on several core issues. The Speaker, who identifies Israeli occupation and sectarianism as Lebanon's two enemies, opposes toppling the government through street protests, encourages dialogue with President Aoun, and supported the confidence vote in the government, which Hezbollah representatives boycotted. Berri also criticized Hezbollah's refusal to withdraw from the Ali al-Taher hills to allow the deployment of the Lebanese army, opposed military intervention for Gaza and Iran, and supported his party's ministers who advocated for the state's monopoly on weapons and the outlawing of Hezbollah's military wing. Due to his position and the severed direct channels with Hezbollah, foreign and Arab envoys continue to visit his office in Beirut as the central point for political contacts.