Pollster Predicts Small Parties, Bennett's Rise Could Sway Election
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
A Maariv poll indicates that the success of two small parties in crossing the electoral threshold could lead to a tie between political blocs. Naftali Bennett's party is showing significant growth, potentially impacting other parties, while the gap between Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud has narrowed to two seats. Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar stated that neither bloc currently has the 61 seats required for a majority, and shifts in Arab voter turnout could further alter the results.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Two small parties passing the electoral threshold could create a tie between political blocs, according to a Maariv poll.
- Naftali Bennett's party is experiencing a significant surge in support, identified as the week's biggest surprise.
- The gap between Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud has narrowed to just two seats.
- Neither the coalition nor the opposition bloc currently holds the 61 seats needed for a majority.
- Potential shifts in Arab voter turnout could further impact the final seat distribution.
A new poll suggests that the success of two small parties in passing the electoral threshold could significantly alter the balance of power between the political blocs. Dr. Menachem Lazar, the pollster for Maariv, indicated that if these parties overcome the 4-seat minimum, the election could end in a tie between the blocs, unlike the 2022 election where Meretz failed to pass the threshold and Benjamin Netanyahu secured a 64-seat majority.
Dr. He also highlighted Naftali Bennett's party as the major surprise of the past two weeks, showing a strengthening trend due to effective grassroots campaigning. Bennett's resurgence is potentially drawing support from Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party and Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu," and possibly from the "Meyladanim-Heklalit" party, which also risks not crossing the threshold.
Furthermore, the gap between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" has narrowed to just two seats in the latest poll. Dr. Lazar cautioned that Bennett's continued growth could negatively impact Eisenkot and Lieberman, and potentially affect the "Meyladanim-Heklalit" party's chances of passing the threshold.
Dr. Lazar also pointed to potential shifts in Arab voter turnout. He emphasized that the election remains highly unpredictable, with potential last-minute changes possible even on election day, and that ground operations on election day could play a decisive role in the close race where neither bloc currently holds the 61 seats needed for a majority.
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