Retired Israeli General Outlines Scenarios for US Strike on Iran
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom assesses the probability of a US strike on Iran as low before the US midterm elections, citing a lack of clear justification. He outlined two scenarios for potential military action: Iran nearing nuclear weapon capability or preparing a surprise attack. Marom also discussed Saudi Arabia's potential future accession to the Abraham Accords and the declining strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz due to alternative energy transport routes.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom sees a low chance of US military action against Iran before US midterms.
- Two scenarios for US action against Iran involve its nuclear program or imminent attack preparations.
- Marom believes Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords at a politically opportune moment.
- The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy supplies is diminishing, Marom stated.
- Alternative land pipelines are increasingly compensating for potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom believes the likelihood of the United States renewing military operations against Iran before the US midterm elections remains low. Marom, a former commander of the Israeli Navy, stated that Washington currently lacks sufficient grounds for a campaign to overthrow the Iranian regime, noting that such a decision could face significant criticism due to unclear objectives. He identified two specific circumstances that could alter this assessment: the acquisition of irrefutable evidence that Iran is preparing to build a nuclear bomb and may conduct a nuclear test in the coming months, or the detection of concrete signs of an imminent Iranian surprise attack that must be preempted. Marom pointed to the characteristics of Iran's missile arsenal, particularly liquid-fuel rockets, as a potential indicator of attack preparations, which would involve significant equipment movement and increased activity. Despite ongoing tensions, Marom urged against expecting immediate renewed hostilities, reiterating his assessment that the probability of a new strike is low at least until the US midterm elections.
Beyond the Iran situation, Marom commented on the prospects of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He anticipates that Riyadh will eventually join the Abraham Accords but will likely choose a politically opportune moment. Marom suggested that Saudi Arabia might delay joining to avoid strengthening Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position before an election, potentially timing such a move with the US midterm elections as a diplomatic achievement for President Donald Trump. He believes Saudi accession to the accords would significantly impact the regional balance of power and could be linked to a weakening of the Iranian regime.
Marom also assessed the diminishing strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy supplies. He argued that Iran's ability to use the strait as leverage is decreasing due to the development of alternative oil transport routes, including land pipelines. According to Marom, the US has largely compensated for potential disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz, and land routes are expected to grow in importance, reducing Iran's influence over international energy shipments. He cited US data suggesting that energy flows have adapted, with expenditures related to the Strait of Hormuz during conflict being 84% of previous levels and overall production exceeding pre-conflict figures when pipelines are considered.
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