Israeli Military Officials Downplay Iran Attack Threat, Citing Midterm Elections

Senior Israeli military officials have stated that there is no justification for attacking Iran before the US midterm elections unless Iran is observed preparing an attack on Israel. These officials clarified that an attack on Iran was not being considered, despite heightened military readiness coinciding with US alert levels. Israeli media quoted the officials as saying that attacking Iran before the US midterm elections is unwarranted, unless Iran shows signs of preparing an offensive against Israel.

Within the Israeli military, there are concerns regarding statements made by political leaders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yisrael Katz have publicly discussed the possibility of attacking Iran, while the military aims to maintain a high state of alert without escalating into conflict. Netanyahu recently stated that Iran is "again trying to develop death bombs," and Katz warned that Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Yair Golan would be held responsible for any attack or operation targeting Israel. Military officials reportedly dislike these statements, as they cannot control political messaging but must manage its battlefield consequences. Analysts warn that such rhetoric could prompt Iran to increase its own readiness, potentially leading to a dangerous cycle of actions and reactions due to miscalculations.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force has been conducting training exercises. This week, dozens of fighter jets reportedly participated in a drill simulating an attack on Iran, reaching areas near the Iranian border. These exercises are described as routine operational activities to maintain readiness, study enemy weaknesses, identify effective flight paths, and preserve the element of surprise, but do not signify a decision to attack before the US elections.

US President Donald Trump accused Iran of attempting to raise oil prices before the US midterm elections by fabricating reports of attacks and damage to influence energy markets. In a separate development, Iran's state broadcaster reported that seven oil tankers were damaged overnight in the Strait of Hormuz due to attacks or collisions with sea mines. If confirmed, this would be the largest number of vessels damaged in the strait in a single day since the Iran-Iraq war began. The report, citing the Revolutionary Guard's naval forces, stated four tankers were attacked and three hit mines. Iran also threatened to target US bases if Washington facilitated oil tanker passage through alternative routes. Shipping intelligence firm Lloyd's List Intelligence noted that some tanker operators continue to transport oil from Gulf states through the Strait at night, using a route near the Omani coast protected by US forces, with navigation and communication systems turned off. The oil is then transferred to waiting tankers in the Gulf of Oman for shipment to Asia.

Iran's state broadcaster also released footage it claimed showed a production line for suicide drones, featuring Iranian Army Commander Amir Hatami and what was described as Iran's latest advanced drone. The Financial Times had previously reported, a claim denied by Netanyahu, that Trump thwarted an Israeli attack on Iran ordered by Netanyahu on October 10, which would have targeted civilian infrastructure like power plants and nuclear facilities. The plan was reportedly halted due to Trump's opposition to resuming hostilities before the midterm elections.

Conversely, The New York Times reported that the US and Israeli militaries have prepared detailed plans for a "short and intense" series of attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, potentially lasting three days to inflict economic damage and force negotiations. Iranian officials, aware of these plans, are reportedly developing retaliatory tactics, including targeting data centers and undersea internet cables, warning that any confrontation would not be brief. Analyst Peyman Salehi suggested that Iranian retaliation could include targeting major Saudi refineries, such as those of Saudi Aramco, which would cause a sharp rise in oil prices. He added that Iran has learned that raising oil and energy prices is its most effective leverage against Trump due to its direct impact on American citizens.