Ex-Israeli Navy Chief: US Strike on Iran Unlikely Before Midterms
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom believes a U.S. military strike on Iran is unlikely before the U.S. midterm elections, citing a lack of sufficient grounds. He identified two potential triggers for action: Iran's imminent nuclear weapon development or signs of an impending surprise attack. Marom also predicted Saudi Arabia's eventual joining of the Abraham Accords at a politically suitable time and suggested the Strait of Hormuz's strategic importance is declining due to alternative energy transport routes.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Retired Major General Eliezer Marom sees a low probability of U.S. military action against Iran before the U.S. midterms.
- Two scenarios could trigger U.S. military action: Iran's imminent nuclear bomb development or signs of a surprise attack.
- Marom believes Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords at a politically opportune moment.
- The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy supplies is diminishing, according to Marom.
- Marom suggested Saudi Arabia might time its normalization with Israel to coincide with U.S. midterm elections.
Retired Major General Eliezer Marom, former commander of the Israeli Navy, assesses the likelihood of a renewed military operation by the U.S. against Iran as low in the near future, particularly before the U.S. midterm elections. Marom told "Maariv" that Washington currently lacks sufficient grounds for such action, which could face significant criticism due to unclear objectives. He outlined two scenarios that could alter this situation: irrefutable evidence of Iran preparing to build a nuclear bomb and conducting a nuclear test within months, or the discovery of concrete signs of an imminent Iranian surprise attack that must be preempted. Marom noted that Iran's use of liquid-fuel rockets could be an indicator of attack preparations, as it would involve significant logistical movements.
Beyond the Iran situation, Marom discussed the prospects of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He believes Riyadh will eventually join the Abraham Accords but will choose a politically opportune moment. Marom suggested Saudi Arabia might align such a move with the U.S. midterms, presenting it as a diplomatic achievement for President Donald Trump, potentially to avoid strengthening Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position before an election. He sees Saudi accession to the accords as a significant regional development, potentially linked to a weakening of the Iranian regime.
Marom also commented on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting its significance for global energy supplies is diminishing. He stated that Iran's ability to use the strait as leverage is decreasing due to the development of alternative oil transport routes, including land pipelines. Marom believes the U.S. has largely compensated for potential disruptions and anticipates that land routes will grow in importance, reducing Iran's influence over international energy flows. He cited U.S. data suggesting that energy flow disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz are now at 84% of previous levels, with overall production exceeding pre-conflict figures when pipelines are factored in.
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