Saudi Arabia Will Join Abraham Accords, Ex-General Predicts
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Major General (Res.) Eliezer Marom predicts Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords, possibly as a gift to Donald Trump before the US midterm elections. He also assesses that a renewed war with Iran is unlikely before the midterms, despite potential scenarios involving nuclear proliferation or thwarted attacks. Marom believes the Strait of Hormuz's strategic importance has diminished due to alternative routes and increased pipeline capacity.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Saudi Arabia is expected to join the Abraham Accords, potentially before the US midterm elections.
- Ex-General Eliezer Marom believes a renewed war with Iran is unlikely before the US midterms.
- Two scenarios for renewed conflict with Iran involve nuclear progress or thwarted attacks.
- The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, according to Marom.
- US traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to pre-war levels, Marom stated.
Major General (Res.) Eliezer Marom believes Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords, but may wait for the opportune moment, suggesting it could be a parting gift to former President Donald Trump before the upcoming midterm elections. Marom also assessed that a renewed war with Iran is unlikely in the immediate future, stating, "For now, at least, we can breathe deeply." He noted that any potential attack on Iran before the US midterm elections would face significant criticism, especially if aimed at regime change, which he described as vague.
Marom outlined two scenarios that could reignite conflict with Iran: the first being irrefutable evidence of Iran nearing a nuclear weapon, such as an imminent nuclear test. The second scenario involves thwarting a surprise Iranian attack, which he believes would be provable due to Iran's reliance on liquid-fueled missiles requiring extensive ground preparations. Despite these possibilities, Marom estimates the chances of renewed hostilities in the near term are low, particularly before the US midterms.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Marom dismissed its current strategic significance, noting that alternative land routes are increasingly utilized and will continue to grow. He asserted that Iran must recognize the emergence of other global energy sources, which presents a significant challenge for them. Marom cited recent US figures indicating that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to pre-war levels, with pipelines compensating for any shortfall.
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