Ex-Israeli General Predicts Saudi Arabia Will Join Abraham Accords
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom predicts Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords, possibly after the US midterm elections. He believes a war with Iran is unlikely before the midterms, citing political legitimacy concerns. Marom identified two potential triggers for conflict: Iran nearing nuclear weapons capability or a preemptive strike against an imminent Iranian attack. He also stated the Strait of Hormuz's importance to global energy has decreased due to alternative pipelines.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom predicts Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords.
- Marom believes a war with Iran is unlikely before the US midterm elections.
- Two scenarios could trigger renewed military action against Iran, according to Marom.
- The Strait of Hormuz's significance for global energy has diminished, Marom stated.
- Saudi Arabia might delay joining the Abraham Accords to avoid benefiting Netanyahu.
- US oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz are at 84% of pre-war levels.
Retired Israeli Major General Eliezer Marom believes Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords, a normalization agreement with Israel, though the timing remains uncertain. Marom, former commander of the Israeli Navy and a senior fellow at the Begin-Sadat Institute for National Security Studies, suggests the Saudis might delay such a move to avoid giving a political gift to Prime Minister Netanyahu before Israeli elections, potentially opting to present it to Donald Trump before the US midterm elections. He stated that this development would be a significant game-changer in the Middle East and a sign of the Iranian regime's impending downfall.
Regarding potential military action against Iran, Marom assesses that a new war is unlikely before the US midterm elections. He explained that launching an attack with the goal of regime change at this time would face immense international criticism due to a lack of political legitimacy. However, Marom outlined two scenarios that could trigger renewed hostilities: the discovery of irrefutable evidence that Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, or the need to preempt a sudden Iranian attack, the preparations for which could be detected. He noted that Iran's reliance on liquid-fueled rockets makes such preparations visible.
Despite these possibilities, Marom maintains that the immediate risk of war is low, suggesting a period of relative calm until at least after the US midterms. He also addressed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that its strategic importance for global energy supplies has diminished. Marom pointed to the US's success in bypassing restrictions through alternative routes, including overland pipelines, and cited data indicating that US oil exports through the Strait are now at 84% of their pre-war levels, with total supply volumes exceeding previous figures due to pipelines. He concluded that the Strait of Hormuz will become a "temporary episode."
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