Saudi Arabia May Join Abraham Accords Before US Elections, Analyst Says
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Saudi Arabia may join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel before the U.S. midterm elections, according to former Israeli Navy commander Eliezer Marom. This move could significantly alter regional dynamics and is seen as a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump. Marom also discussed the low probability of a new war with Iran before the U.S. elections, citing specific intelligence triggers that could change this outlook. Additionally, he noted Iran's decreasing leverage over global energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Saudi Arabia may join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel before U.S. elections.
- Former Israeli Navy commander Eliezer Marom made the prediction in an interview with 103FM radio.
- The move could provide a diplomatic achievement for U.S. President Donald Trump.
- Marom believes Saudi Arabia might avoid announcing the deal before Israeli elections.
- He assessed the likelihood of a new war with Iran as low before the U.S. midterms.
- Iran's ability to influence global energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz is diminishing.
Saudi Arabia might offer a significant diplomatic gift to U.S. President Donald Trump by joining the Abraham Accords and establishing official relations with Israel before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. This development could reshape the Middle East landscape, especially given Iran's perceived weakening and the ongoing threat of military confrontation.
Former Israeli Navy commander, retired Major General Eliezer Marom, told 103FM radio that Saudi Arabia's entry into the Abraham Accords is nearly inevitable. He suggested Riyadh might time this move for maximum political benefit, potentially avoiding an announcement before Israeli elections to prevent bolstering Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political standing. However, Marom also noted the possibility of an announcement before the U.S. midterms to provide Trump with a diplomatic achievement.
Marom views a Saudi-Israeli normalization as a major regional policy shift and a sign of the Iranian regime's decline. He also assessed the likelihood of renewed conflict with Iran, deeming a large-scale operation to overthrow the regime improbable before the U.S. elections due to potential criticism and unclear objectives. However, he outlined two scenarios that could trigger military action: credible intelligence of Iran nearing nuclear weapon capability with imminent testing, or confirmed Iranian preparations for a surprise attack, potentially prompting a preemptive strike by Israel and the U.S.
Despite ongoing tensions, Marom believes large-scale hostilities are unlikely in the immediate future. He also commented on the Strait of Hormuz, stating Iran's ability to leverage threats to block the waterway is diminishing. Marom cited the U.S. and other energy market participants' reduced reliance on this route due to alternative transport methods, like pipelines, as a factor weakening Tehran's influence over global oil and gas supplies.
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