Arab Citizens Mobilize for Crucial Vote Amidst Growing Tensions

Despite unprecedented alienation and accusations of being a "fifth column," Arab citizens in Israel are showing a strong desire to vote in the upcoming elections. This surge in engagement stems from a deep-seated understanding that the election's outcome will significantly shape their future, with fears that the current government's policies could severely harm their civil standing and daily lives. Ra'awiya Handaklo, CEO of Ilaaf, emphasizes that for Arab Israelis, this election is not merely about influence or budgets, but a "struggle for life itself, for security, for equality, for the future."

Several concerning incidents have fueled this sentiment, including the establishment of an outpost near Majd al-Krum, mirroring West Bank settlement patterns, and a rise in racist attacks and rhetoric, such as warnings about "Arab dominance in the healthcare system." Attempts to disqualify Arab parties, disruptions to campaign events, and a smear campaign against Ra'am, featuring offensive imagery, have further intensified feelings of rejection.

Paradoxically, this sense of being marginalized is driving increased participation. The vote is perceived as "fateful" and a "last chance for change," a choice between "bad and worse." The strategy is to increase voter turnout to raise the electoral threshold, hindering right-wing parties, and to push for legislation like the "accused law" and a change in the Knesset speaker before a new government is formed. Ahmad Tibi, Chairman of Ta'al, declared that "this time Arabs will truly flock to the polls."

Experts predict a high turnout, potentially reaching 65% or more, with one survey indicating 75% of Arabs favor voting. This is particularly evident among Bedouins in the Negev, who are concerned about the accelerating pace of home demolitions. Public campaigns under slogans like "Our absence cost us dearly" and "Unload your anger and go vote" are gaining traction, supported by local leaders who deem the election "fateful" and a "vital necessity" to confront an "existential threat."

While encouraging voter turnout is challenging due to daily concerns like crime and economic issues, and frustration with the "change bloc's" perceived indifference, the urgency is palpable. Projections suggest the Joint List could win 7-8 seats and Ra'am 5-6, with potential gains if turnout is high. The previous election saw a 53.2% Arab voter turnout, significantly lower than the national average of 70.6%, and Arab parties secured 10 seats. The record turnout in 2020 was 65%, with Arab parties winning 15 seats.

Young voters, in particular, are seen as decisive. Ola Najmi-Yosef of the Jewish-Arab Center for Peace at Givat Haviva notes that many young people will vote out of deep anger and a belief in their ability to influence change, despite growing up amidst the pandemic and the Gaza war. Calls for boycotting the elections are weak, with many, like pharmacist Sa'id Kabat, now choosing to vote to counter figures like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, and others fearing the government's "evacuation plan."

Shared interests are also softening the traditional rivalry between Ra'am and the Joint List, leading to coordination and surplus agreements. Yousef Jabareen, Chairman of Hadash and the Joint List, indicated a willingness to break with past rigid stances on supporting Zionist parties to oust Netanyahu. The group, currently seen as politically marginalized, may ultimately determine the election's outcome, especially if the predicted "flock to the polls" materializes, a scenario Netanyahu warned of in 2015 and is now amplifying with strong rhetoric against Arab parties.