Israel's Elections: Defining Moments Often Fueled by Emotion, Not Policy

Over four decades of Israeli elections, certain moments have been etched into the national memory as pivotal turning points. However, a closer examination reveals that these "defining moments" often amplified existing trends rather than solely dictating outcomes, with their impact frequently exaggerated in hindsight.

In 1981, Prime Minister Menachem Begin famously read out remarks by commentator Dudu Topaz, who had referred to a segment of the population as "Tzakh'chuchim" (a derogatory term for Mizrahi Jews). Begin used the incident to rally support from Oriental community voters, in an election ultimately decided by a narrow margin. Similarly, in 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu released a video on election day warning that "Arab voters are streaming in large numbers," a message that resonated with his base. While these events were close to election day and focused on identity and fear, their decisive impact is debated, with some analysts suggesting they primarily mobilized existing supporters rather than changing minds.

Other instances highlight different dynamics. In 1996, Netanyahu's campaign against Shimon Peres included the slogan "Peres will divide Jerusalem" and linked Peres to terrorism, capitalizing on security concerns. In 2009, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party used the slogan "No loyalty, no citizenship," tapping into Jewish-Arab tensions and achieving significant gains. In 2013, Naftali Bennett's response to a question about refusing orders to evacuate settlers sparked controversy but didn't immediately translate into electoral shifts. The 2015 "kamea-kissers" speech by artist Yair Garbuz, perceived as an insult to religious voters, was seen by some as costing the Likud votes, though this remains unproven.

More recent examples include Benny Gantz's 2019 campaign video stating "parts of Gaza returned to the Stone Age," which aimed to project strength but saw his poll numbers rise significantly only after his main speech. In 2021, Naftali Bennett's pre-election pledge not to allow Yair Lapid to become prime minister, which he later broke, became a point of political criticism after the fact. In 2022, Itamar Ben-Gvir's dramatic gesture of drawing a pistol during a confrontation in Sheikh Jarrah became an iconic image, though polls showed his party was already polling strongly.

The recurring themes in these impactful moments are identity, fear, and base mobilization. Insults perceived as ethnic slurs can become campaign tools, while security and demographic messages hold sway. However, the article cautions against oversimplifying complex election results, noting that "defining moments" are often convenient narratives constructed in hindsight, masking deeper trends and multiple contributing factors. The timing of an event, closer to election day, increases its potential impact by limiting the opponent's response time.