Lebanon Fears Security Vacuum as UN Peacekeepers Prepare to Withdraw
Translated & summarized from Al-Shams by baba
Lebanon faces a potential security vacuum as UNIFIL peacekeepers are set to withdraw by the end of 2027, a decision made by the UN Security Council. Lebanese officials, including the President and Prime Minister, are concerned about the lack of alternative arrangements to maintain stability in the south. Discussions are ongoing regarding a potential new international force, but its mandate and capabilities remain undefined amidst escalating cross-border tensions and Israeli attacks.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- UNIFIL is scheduled to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon by the end of 2027.
- Lebanese leaders fear a security vacuum will emerge without alternative international arrangements.
- The specifics of any potential replacement force, including its mandate, are currently unclear.
- Escalating Israeli attacks on Lebanon increase concerns about regional stability.
- The European Union has established a mission to support Lebanese security forces, but its role is undetermined.
Lebanon is bracing for a potential security vacuum in its southern region as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) prepares for a gradual withdrawal by the end of 2027. The UN Security Council decided in August 2025 to extend UNIFIL's mandate for the final time until December 31, 2026, after which the force will begin its phased and safe disengagement.
Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have voiced concerns that the withdrawal without alternative arrangements could leave a security void. They emphasize the importance of continued international presence to fulfill the tasks currently undertaken by UNIFIL, which has been operating in southern Lebanon since 1978 and expanded its mission after the 2006 war to monitor ceasefires, assist the Lebanese army, report violations, and facilitate coordination between Lebanon and Israel.
Discussions are underway regarding potential alternatives, with some Lebanese lawmakers, like Abdel Rahman Al-Bizri, suggesting the formation of a new international force. However, the specifics of such a force, including its mandate, rules of engagement, and relationship with the Lebanese army, remain unclear. Al-Bizri noted a potential US inclination against further extensions, contrasting with European, Arab, and regional efforts to find a successor. He also pointed to ongoing difficulties in reaching tangible agreements on key issues, such as further Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, despite US-brokered talks.
The escalating Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which have resulted in over 4,300 deaths and 12,400 injuries since March 2, with over a million displaced, exacerbate these fears. While a US-brokered "framework agreement" was signed on June 26 concerning gradual Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment, the continued Israeli military presence raises questions about future stability.
Local officials, such as Youssef Shehimi, Mayor of Majdal Zoun, are also worried about the lack of clarity regarding who will monitor the security situation and document violations post-UNIFIL. They are calling for a clear transitional plan to ensure security and facilitate the return of displaced residents. Experts like Nidal Al-Zoubi, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, warn of potential security, military, and legal repercussions if no international monitoring body is in place, highlighting the Lebanese army's current limitations in assuming all of UNIFIL's responsibilities.
The European Union announced on October 12 the creation of a mission to support the Lebanese army and internal security forces, but its role in replacing UNIFIL is yet to be determined, pending clarification of its mandate and operational capabilities. International disagreements, particularly between the US and China/Russia, could further complicate consensus on future arrangements.
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