Lebanon Faces Security Vacuum Fears as UNIFIL Nears Departure

Lebanon is experiencing growing concerns about a potential security vacuum in its southern region as the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is set to conclude at the end of 2026. This comes amid ongoing Israeli military actions and ambiguity surrounding potential international replacements for the peacekeeping force. While the European Union has decided to establish a mission to support the Lebanese army and internal security forces, questions remain about who will monitor field developments, document violations, and facilitate communication between parties after UNIFIL's withdrawal.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has warned that the end of UNIFIL's mission without an international alternative could lead to a security void in the south. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has also emphasized Lebanon's need for an international presence to fulfill these roles. The UN Security Council decided in August 2025 to extend UNIFIL's mandate for a final time until December 31, 2026, with a gradual and safe withdrawal planned for 2027. UNIFIL has been stationed in southern Lebanon since 1978, with its role enhanced after the 2006 war to include monitoring the cessation of hostilities and assisting the Lebanese army.

Lebanese MP Abdel Rahman Al-Bizri described the situation as a critical juncture, noting a strong American desire, possibly a veto, against any further extension of UNIFIL, despite efforts by European, Arab, and regional countries to find a continuation formula. Proposed alternatives include establishing a new international force in coordination with Lebanon, but key challenges lie in defining its mission, rules of engagement, and relationship with the Lebanese state and Israel. Al-Bizri pointed to a lack of clarity on these arrangements, particularly with the US and Israel insisting on a trilateral framework for direct and indirect communications between Lebanon and Israel under US auspices. He also noted that this approach has not yielded results in convincing Israel to withdraw from additional southern areas.

Since March 2, Israel has conducted attacks on Lebanon resulting in over 4,300 deaths and 12,400 injuries, with over a million displaced, according to Lebanese authorities. Despite a US-brokered "framework agreement" signed in June aimed at Israeli withdrawal, deployment of the Lebanese army, and Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli attacks and occupation of Lebanese territory persist.

Al-Bizri stressed the importance of UNIFIL's continued presence in the near future as a guarantee for border stability, despite noted performance issues. He stated that Lebanese MPs have urged the executive authority to support UNIFIL's renewal, acknowledging the final decision rests with the UN Security Council. While expressing confidence in the Lebanese army's capabilities, he highlighted its technical limitations compared to international forces, stating it cannot fully replace UNIFIL's role in maintaining national sovereignty and security.

Concerns extend to border municipalities, with Majdal Zoun Mayor Youssef Chahimi emphasizing the need to prevent a security vacuum after UNIFIL's departure. He called for a clear plan from the Lebanese government and the international community to protect civilians, assert state authority, and ensure the safe return of residents. Chahimi stressed the need for a plan to identify who will monitor the security situation and address Israeli violations, providing real guarantees for Lebanese territory.

Brigadier General Nidal Zahwi, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, warned of legal, military, and security repercussions from UNIFIL's departure, citing the absence of an international body to monitor the situation. He believes the Lebanese army cannot handle the resulting security vacuum alone given its current capabilities. Zahwi noted that any additional international mission, including the European one, requires clear international approvals and arrangements, and that current proposals lack sufficient guarantees for Lebanese territory and sovereignty. He also pointed to US-China-Russia competition hindering other international options, and recalled that past proposals for Arab and Turkish forces were rejected by Israel.