Forecasting Market Bets on Gadi Eisenkot Over Netanyahu for PM
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
The international forecasting market Polymarket shows Gadi Eisenkot as the leading candidate to become Israel's next prime minister with a 47% probability, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 28.5%. Trading on this market has exceeded $48.5 million, despite a public endorsement of Netanyahu by U.S. President Donald Trump. In a separate market, the "Yashr" party is favored to be the largest in the Knesset, though bloc formations remain close. The ability to form a 61-seat coalition is a key factor for investors, with Arab voter turnout also seen as potentially decisive.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu on Polymarket with a 47% chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's chances are estimated at 28.5%, with Naftali Bennett at 11.5% on the Polymarket platform.
- Trading volume on the prime ministerial forecast market has surpassed $48.5 million.
- The "Yashr" party is favored to be the largest in the Knesset, with trading at 68% on Polymarket.
- U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election.
- The ability to form a 61-seat coalition is a key factor for investors in the forecasting market.
As Israeli election campaigns enter their final stretch, the international forecasting market Polymarket indicates Gadi Eisenkot is the leading contender to become the next prime minister. As of Monday, the platform assigns Eisenkot a 47% probability of heading the next government, significantly higher than Benjamin Netanyahu's 28.5% and Naftali Bennett's 11.5%. Trading volume on this market alone has surpassed $48.5 million.
Eisenkot's lead on Polymarket is notable, especially considering the public endorsement Netanyahu received from U.S. President Donald Trump, who urged Israelis to re-elect him. Reuters observed that the impact of this American statement on Israeli voters remains uncertain, particularly in an election where no bloc has a clear path to forming a coalition.
In a separate Polymarket market focused on which party will be the largest in the Knesset, the "Yashr" party is priced at 68% compared to the Likud's 33%, with trading exceeding $1 million. These figures partially align with recent poll averages, which placed "Yashr" at approximately 21.5 mandates and Likud at 19.
However, the bloc picture remains tight, with the Zionist opposition holding about 51.25 mandates against Netanyahu's bloc of 51. The discrepancy between party size and coalition formation potential stems from Israel's governmental system, which requires a 61-seat majority. Polymarket investors are therefore betting not just on election results but also on candidates' abilities to assemble a coalition post-election.
Reuters also highlighted the potential impact of Arab voter turnout, noting that Arab parties are expected to secure around 13 seats. This bloc could be decisive in shaping the parliamentary map, even through external support or abstention.
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