Betting Market Favors Eisenkot Over Netanyahu for Israeli Prime Minister
Translated & summarized from Mako by baba
The Polymarket prediction market shows Gadi Eisenkot with a 48% implied probability of becoming Israel's next prime minister, significantly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 28%. The total trading volume has reached $46.5 million with 12 days left until the October 27 election. While prediction markets have a mixed history of accuracy, this market's prices are influenced by participant risk-taking and trading volume.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is favored to become Israel's next prime minister with a 48% probability on Polymarket.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is second with a 28% probability, followed by Naftali Bennett at 16%.
- The total trading volume on Israeli prime minister contracts has reached $46.5 million.
- Prediction markets have a mixed record of accuracy in past global elections.
- The contracts focus on who will be sworn in, not party seat counts.
The popular prediction market Polymarket shows a significant lead for Gadi Eisenkot over Benjamin Netanyahu in the race for Israeli prime minister, with 12 days remaining until the election. Eisenkot's contract is trading at a price reflecting a 48% probability of becoming prime minister, while Netanyahu's contract is at 28%. Naftali Bennett is at 16%, and Avigdor Lieberman is at 3%. Other candidates, including Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Yair Golan, are trading below 1% each.
The total trading volume on contracts for the next prime minister has reached approximately $46.5 million since the market opened in November 2025. This figure represents the cumulative turnover, not the net investment. In Polymarket, participants buy and sell contracts on future event outcomes; a contract trading at 48 cents implies a 48% market assessment of that outcome occurring, paying out $1 if it does.
Unlike opinion polls that survey voting intentions, Polymarket participants risk money on their assessed outcomes, with prices influenced by available information, trader expectations, and supply and demand. The contracts specifically concern who will be sworn in as prime minister after the October 27 election, not the size of parties or their Knesset seats.
Recent polls show Eisenkot's party with 20-23 seats, Netanyahu's Likud with 18-21, and Bennett's party with 12-13. The current coalition parties collectively hover around 47-49 seats, short of the 61 needed to form a government.
Prediction markets have a mixed track record globally. Polymarket correctly predicted Donald Trump's win in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but it favored Hillary Clinton in 2016 and predicted a Remain vote in the Brexit referendum, both of which proved incorrect. The article notes that large trades by a few participants can significantly influence prices in markets with lower trading volumes, such as the one for Israeli elections.
Mentioned
The same event, reported separately by each outlet. Open a few to compare what different newsrooms emphasize — and what they leave out.
Centre 1Other 1
Not the same event — other stories that share this one’s people, places, or theme: background, reactions, and follow-ups.
