Betting Market Favors Eisenkot Over Netanyahu for Israeli Prime Minister
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
The Polymarket prediction market shows Gadi Eisenkot with a 48% chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister, significantly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 28%. The total trading volume has reached $46.5 million, with 12 days left until the election. While polls suggest a different distribution of party mandates, the betting market's accuracy has been inconsistent in past global elections. Trading on Polymarket involves financial risk based on predicted outcomes.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is favored to become Israel's next prime minister with a 48% probability on Polymarket.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is projected to have a 28% chance, while Naftali Bennett is at 16% and Avigdor Lieberman at 3%.
- The total trading volume on Israeli prime minister contracts on Polymarket has reached $46.5 million.
- The prediction market's accuracy has been mixed in past elections, including US presidential and Brexit votes.
- Polls show Eisenkot's party leading, but the current coalition parties are projected to fall short of a majority.
The popular prediction market Polymarket shows a significant lead for Gadi Eisenkot over Benjamin Netanyahu in the race for Israeli prime minister, with 12 days remaining until the election. Eisenkot's contract is trading at a price reflecting a 48% probability of becoming prime minister, while Netanyahu's contract indicates a 28% chance. Naftali Bennett is at 16%, and Avigdor Lieberman is at approximately 3%. Other candidates, including Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Yair Golan, are trading below 1% each.
The total trading volume on contracts for the next prime minister has reached approximately $46.5 million since the market opened in November 2025. This figure represents the cumulative turnover, not the net investment. In Polymarket, participants buy and sell contracts based on their assessment of future event outcomes; a contract trading at 48 cents implies a 48% market expectation of that event occurring, paying out $1 if it does.
Unlike opinion polls that survey voting intentions, Polymarket's prices are influenced by available information, traders' expectations, and supply and demand, with participants risking money on their predictions. The contracts specifically concern who will be sworn in as prime minister after the October 27th election, not the size of parties or their Knesset seats.
Recent polls show Eisenkot's party receiving 20-23 mandates, Netanyahu's Likud 18-21, and Bennett's list 12-13. The current coalition parties collectively hover around 47-49 mandates, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority.
Polymarket's track record is mixed. It correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election when many polls showed a close race. However, it favored Hillary Clinton in 2016 and clearly priced in a 'Remain' vote in the Brexit referendum that same year, with both outcomes being the opposite of the market's prediction. The market's depth also matters; in 2024, a single French trader reportedly influenced prices significantly. For the Israeli contracts, trading volumes are smaller, making prices more susceptible to fluctuations from large individual trades.
Polymarket faced regulatory issues in the US, settling with the CFTC in 2022 and paying a $1.4 million fine. It now operates a separate, regulated US arm. Trading is conducted using dollar-pegged digital currencies, and access is restricted in some countries.
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