Betting Markets Favor Gadi Eisenkot Over Netanyahu for Prime Minister
Translated & summarized from Bizportal by baba
Gadi Eisenkot is favored to become Israel's next prime minister with a 48% probability on the Polymarket betting platform, significantly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 28%. The total trading volume for this contract has reached approximately $46.5 million since November 2025. Unlike opinion polls, these markets involve financial risk, with prices reflecting trader expectations and available information. While betting markets have a mixed history of accuracy, the current pricing reflects a focus on government formation capabilities amidst conflicting poll results.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is favored to become Israel's next prime minister with a 48% probability on Polymarket.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is second with a 28% probability, followed by Naftali Bennett at 16%.
- The total trading volume on the prime minister contract has reached approximately $46.5 million.
- Unlike polls, Polymarket participants risk money, influencing prices based on information and expectations.
- Conflicting poll results and the focus on government formation contribute to market pricing.
- Betting markets have a mixed track record, with notable successes and failures in past elections.
The Israeli election betting market is showing a significant lead for Gadi Eisenkot as the preferred candidate for prime minister, according to trading on the Polymarket platform. As of Thursday afternoon, Eisenkot's contract was trading at a price reflecting a 48% probability of becoming prime minister following the upcoming elections. Benjamin Netanyahu was at 28%, Naftali Bennett at 16%, and Avigdor Lieberman at 3%. Other candidates, including Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Yair Golan, were trading below 1% each.
The total volume of transactions for the prime minister contract has reached approximately $46.5 million since the market opened in November 2025. This figure represents the cumulative trading volume, not the net investment. Polymarket operates by allowing participants to buy and sell contracts on future events; a contract priced at 48 cents implies a 48% market assessment of that event occurring, and it pays out $1 if it happens.
Unlike opinion polls that survey voting intentions, Polymarket participants risk money on their predictions. Prices are influenced by available information, trader expectations, and supply and demand. The contracts specifically concern who will be sworn in as prime minister after the October 27 elections, not party sizes or mandate counts.
Recent polls from Israeli media outlets show Eisenkot's party receiving 20-23 mandates and the Likud party 18-21, with the current coalition parties' bloc falling short of the 61 mandates needed for a majority. However, other polls present a different picture, with the Likud receiving 26-29 mandates and a bloc of 56-61. This discrepancy contributes to the market's pricing, as traders focus on who can form a government.
Betting markets have a mixed track record. In the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket correctly predicted Donald Trump's higher chances against a close race indicated by most polls. However, in 2016, betting markets favored Hillary Clinton, and for the Brexit referendum, they clearly priced in a vote to remain in the EU, with opposite outcomes occurring in both instances. The Israeli market's volumes are smaller, meaning individual large trades can significantly impact prices.
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