Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu in Prime Minister Race on Prediction Market
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
On the Polymarket prediction platform, Gadi Eisenkot is currently favored to become Israel's next prime minister with a 48% probability, leading Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%, just a week before the elections. Eisenkot's "Yashar" party also leads in the race for the largest party with 68% prediction. The market reflects a dramatic reversal from earlier in the campaign, with Eisenkot gaining ground and Netanyahu's bloc falling short of a majority. The final outcome will be determined by voters on October 27.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is the leading candidate for prime minister on Polymarket with a 48% probability, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%.
- Eisenkot's "Yashar" party is predicted to be the largest in the Knesset with 68% of the market's prediction.
- The gap between Eisenkot and Netanyahu has narrowed to 19% in the prime ministerial race.
- Netanyahu's bloc is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority coalition.
- The prediction market reflects a significant reversal from earlier in the campaign, with Eisenkot gaining momentum.
- The ultimate decision on who will be prime minister will be made by voters on October 27.
With just one week remaining until the upcoming elections, a digital trading platform indicates a significant shift in the political landscape. On the global prediction market Polymarket, traders are currently favoring Gadi Eisenkot as the leading candidate for prime minister, assigning him a 48% probability. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails in second place with a 29% chance, followed by Naftali Bennett at 13%. The gap between Netanyahu and Eisenkot has narrowed to 19% in recent days, down from 23% last week.
In the race for the largest party, Eisenkot's "Yashar" party holds a substantial lead with 68% of the market's prediction, compared to the Likud party's 33%. Polymarket operates as a blockchain-based prediction exchange where participants trade "shares" representing real-world event outcomes. The price of a share reflects the market's perceived probability of an event occurring; for instance, Eisenkot's share at 48 cents signifies a 48% chance of his election.
The market for the next prime minister, which opened on November 14, 2025, has seen over $48.5 million in trading volume. The market for the largest party, opened in May 2026, has generated approximately $1 million in trades.
These current figures represent a dramatic reversal from earlier in the campaign. Between December and February, Netanyahu consistently led, trading around 50% and peaking at nearly 60% in early March. However, a trend reversal occurred around July, with Eisenkot climbing to approximately 50% and maintaining a consistent lead since, while Netanyahu's support waned to between 25% and 35%.
Similar volatility has been observed in the party market. The Likud party led throughout the summer until early October, when "Yashar" experienced a significant surge. Other parties, including "Be'ad", Shas, and the Democrats, are trading at negligible probabilities below 1%.
Polymarket's analytical summary notes that local opinion polls also place "Yashar" ahead of Likud in terms of projected Knesset seats (21-26 for "Yashar" versus 18-23 for Likud) and show Eisenkot with an advantage in suitability for prime minister. Traders also observe that Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 49 to 54 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority. The market is pricing in a high risk of political deadlock and prolonged negotiations due to the lack of a clear coalition path. However, Polymarket emphasizes that its market reflects investors' expectations and financial risks, not a definitive poll. The ultimate decision on who will enter the Prime Minister's Office will be made at the ballot box on October 27.
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