Why Israeli Parties Without Real Chances Still Run in Elections
Translated & summarized from Makor Rishon by baba
Several Israeli political parties with little chance of passing the electoral threshold are continuing to run in the upcoming elections, potentially influencing the final government composition. Factors driving this include the significant public exposure elections provide, genuine belief in overcoming polling inaccuracies, and substantial financial incentives. Parties that pass the threshold receive significant state funding, while those that fall short but achieve 1% of the vote can recoup some costs. Established parties often have less to lose financially, while new parties risk their supporters' funds and bank guarantees.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli elections can be decided by parties failing to pass the electoral threshold, impacting government formation.
- Parties continue to run in elections for public exposure, genuine belief in success, and financial incentives.
- State funding is a major factor, with parties passing the threshold receiving significant financial benefits.
- Parties falling short but reaching 1% of the vote can recoup some campaign costs.
- Established parties have less financial risk than new parties, which may forfeit bank guarantees.
- Unsuccessful parties can leave substantial debts to the state, with established parties' debts often unrecoverable.
Israeli elections can be decided not by the winning party, but by those that fall short of the electoral threshold. A few thousand votes can determine the next government and the country's direction for years. For example, in 2019, about 1,400 votes kept Naftali Bennett's New Right party below the threshold, preventing Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a coalition and leading to four elections in two years. In 2022, Meretz was left out by a similar margin, allowing the Likud to form a government. Historically, the 1992 election saw the Tehila party fail to pass the threshold, enabling Yitzhak Rabin to form a government and paving the way for the Oslo Accords.
Currently, at least five parties in the center-right are polling below the electoral threshold, potentially wasting hundreds of thousands of votes. These include Ofer Vinter's Am Israel, Yoaz Hendel's Reservists (which joined Yaron Zelekha's Economic party), Benny Gantz's Blue and White, Moti Lightner's Haredi Public, and Avi Maoz's Noam. Their continued participation raises the question of why parties with poor poll numbers persist.
Several factors contribute to this. Elections offer significant exposure for individuals and ideas, and some parties genuinely believe they can overcome the odds, noting that polls can be inaccurate. However, a significant, often overlooked, incentive is financial. Most party funding comes from the state, with each Knesset seat worth approximately 1.835 million shekels in the current election. Parties that pass the threshold receive this funding plus a bonus of about 2.6 million shekels, and ongoing funding throughout the Knesset term, which helps cover debts.
Parties failing to pass the threshold must return their funding, unless they secure at least 1% of the vote, in which case they are entitled to one funding unit (about 1.8 million shekels). This incentivizes parties to continue running even when defeat seems likely, aiming to secure that 1% to mitigate losses and recoup some campaign expenses. For established parties like Blue and White, funding is less of a concern as they receive advance payments based on their current Knesset representation, regardless of poll results.
Newer parties face different rules. They can receive advances up to about 18.35 million shekels, but only against bank guarantees. If they fail to pass the threshold, these guarantees are forfeited. This creates an uneven playing field, favoring established parties with state-backed safety nets over new parties relying on their supporters' funds.
When existing parties accrue debt and fail to pass the threshold, the state has little recourse to recover the funds. According to the State Comptroller, seven non-active parties owe the state about 43.8 million shekels. Yoaz Hendel's party left a debt of 2.7 million shekels after the 2022 elections, and Naftali Bennett's party left a debt of about 9 million shekels. This paradox means established parties can run on state funds and leave bad debts, while new parties risk their supporters' money. The Haredi Public party, for instance, is running despite low expectations, aiming to voice the concerns of a growing segment of the Haredi community seeking integration and better opportunities, though this also risks being dismissed as a fringe movement if vote totals are low.
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