Israel and US Favor Sanctions Over Airstrikes on Iran

An analysis published by Yedioth Ahronoth suggests that the United States and Israel face difficulties in achieving the goal of toppling the Iranian regime through airstrikes, despite their military superiority. Military analyst Ron Ben Yishai noted that naval blockades and economic pressure might be more effective tools to influence Tehran in the coming phase. The analysis indicates that both the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the Israeli government recognize that significant damage to Iran's military capabilities does not necessarily lead to regime collapse or abandonment of its nuclear and missile programs, given the continued cohesion of its security and military institutions and the absence of an organized opposition force.

Disagreements between Washington and Tehran continue to center on Iran's nuclear program and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian demands for the lifting of the naval blockade, sanctions, and the release of frozen assets. Trump prioritizes halting Iran's nuclear program before addressing other Iranian demands, while Tehran officials maintain their positions on uranium enrichment and the development of ballistic missiles and drones. This divergence in stances and the difficulty in reaching a political settlement exacerbate fears of continued stalemate, despite military strikes against Iran.

Washington views a naval blockade as a significant pressure tool on Iran's economy, particularly its oil exports and foreign currency revenues, as U.S. forces continue to bolster their military presence in the region. This includes sending an additional task force led by the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and enhancing naval and air capabilities. However, these moves do not necessarily signal a decision for a new attack, as the U.S. administration is still assessing the military, economic, and political risks of further escalation.

Internal political calculations for President Trump, including the potential negative impact of rising fuel prices and increased potential casualties on Republicans in the upcoming November midterm elections, are also a factor. These considerations push Trump to balance continued pressure on Iran with avoiding a long and costly military confrontation.

Regarding Israel, the security establishment is reportedly examining the feasibility of a new round of airstrikes, questioning whether military operations can yield different results than previous ones. Continued military readiness is aimed at preparing for any developments, with an emphasis on bolstering interceptor missile stockpiles, precision munitions, and improving home front defense capabilities. The analysis concludes that Washington and Tel Aviv face a strategic dilemma: they can weaken Iran militarily, but struggle to guarantee the regime's downfall or prevent it from rebuilding its long-term nuclear and missile capabilities.