Eisenkot's Strategy Could Undermine Netanyahu's Right-Wing Bloc

A political analysis by Daphna Liel on Channel 12 suggests that a key battle in the upcoming Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27, may revolve around smaller parties on the right. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be harmed by a scenario where hundreds of thousands of right-wing votes are lost because small parties fail to pass the electoral threshold. Gadi Eisenkot's party is reportedly aiming to compete for the title of the largest party, but a secondary goal may be to draw votes away from smaller right-wing parties, thus increasing the number of wasted votes.

According to the analysis, parties led by Ofer Winter, Yaron Zelicha, and Yoaz Hendel, along with others like Achi, Tzeva Shachor, Hachazit Hacharedit, and Noam, could be significantly impacted. If these parties do not pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, an estimated 6% to 8% of all votes, primarily from the right-wing bloc, might not translate into Knesset seats. This could be crucial in elections where the gap between blocs is narrow, potentially affecting the formation of a government.

The analysis draws a parallel to the 2022 elections, where around 300,000 votes were lost when Meretz failed to pass the threshold. This time, however, the aim attributed to Eisenkot is to cause a similar outcome within Netanyahu's political camp. The strategy also has implications within the "Change Bloc" itself, as Eisenkot's party is polling at 23 seats, while Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman's parties together poll at 22. Eisenkot may seek to widen this gap to strengthen his position for post-election coalition negotiations.

Saul Meridor, a senior official in Eisenkot's party, indicated that a larger party could attract undecided Likud voters and increase its influence. However, the analysis posits that if Netanyahu responds by campaigning for the Likud at the expense of smaller right-wing parties, it could reduce the overall number of seats for the right-wing bloc. The analysis also considers the possibility of an inconclusive election outcome, where neither bloc secures the 61 seats needed to form a government, potentially leading to prolonged government formation processes and a caretaker government under Netanyahu.

Potential parliamentary actions by a new Knesset, even without a formed government, could include replacing the Knesset speaker, advancing legislation on conscription, establishing a state commission of inquiry for the October 7th events, and advancing legislation on term limits. Ultimately, the election's outcome may depend not only on which party becomes the largest but also on the number of votes lost by parties failing to pass the threshold. For Netanyahu, even a stronger Likud might not guarantee a stronger right-wing bloc, while Eisenkot, even if he leads the largest party, would still need to demonstrate the ability to form a majority government.