Eisenkot's Last-Minute Strategy Could Decide Election Outcome

Gadi Eisenkot has decided to launch a campaign for a large party after weeks of deliberation, aiming to significantly outperform his potential challengers within his own bloc and, more importantly, to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a broader contest that could weaken his support base among parties near the electoral threshold. This strategy, reminiscent of the "big party" campaign that proved detrimental to the change bloc in 2022, may now serve as Eisenkot's opportunity.

Eisenkot's party colleague, Shaul Meridor, explained that a large party would attract undecided Likud voters seeking a decisive outcome and help the party gain influence post-election. Internally, Eisenkot seeks to preempt challenges from Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, who together currently poll at 22 seats compared to Eisenkot's 23. While Yair Golan is politically closer to Eisenkot, he also seeks influence, potentially leading to a bloc demanding the premiership, possibly including Ra'am.

Eisenkot aims to replicate the change bloc's 2022 self-inflicted wound by forcing Netanyahu into a head-to-head race, potentially weakening right-wing parties like those of Ofer Winter, Yaron Zelicha, and Yoaz Hendel. If successful and Winter does not withdraw before the election, hundreds of thousands of votes could be lost, this time from the opposing side. Bezalel Smotrich appears safe above the electoral threshold, but past precedents suggest caution.

Beyond the election campaign, Israel faces a potential scenario of prolonged government formation if no bloc secures a clear majority on October 27. Official results will be published a week later, giving the President another week to decide whom to task with forming a government. The designated candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14, and if they fail, the President can assign the task to another candidate or declare no government can be formed, leading to potentially three months of uncertainty.

Remarkably, the new Knesset, convening on November 10, can begin legislative processes and parliamentary oversight even before a new government is sworn in. This could create an unusual situation where the change bloc has a Knesset majority but cannot form a government. The election of a Knesset Speaker, requiring a simple majority, becomes crucial, as replacing them later is nearly impossible. The new Knesset could advance legislation on conscription, establish a state inquiry commission for the October 7 events, or even limit terms, all before a government is formed.