Eisenkot's Last-Minute Strategy Could Sway Election Outcome

Gadi Eisenkot has decided to launch a "big party" campaign, aiming to significantly grow his political bloc and potentially challenge rivals within his camp. This strategy also seeks to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a similar large-scale campaign, potentially at the expense of smaller parties on his right that are hovering around the electoral threshold. This move mirrors a past political strategy that proved detrimental to the "change bloc" in 2022.

In 2022, the failure of Meretz and Labor to unite, followed by Yair Lapid's attempt to absorb their votes, resulted in nearly 300,000 votes, or seven Knesset seats, falling below the electoral threshold. Now, Eisenkot faces a similar dilemma: whether to pursue growth even at the cost of his allies. However, what was a tragedy for the "change bloc" might become Eisenkot's opportunity.

Shaul Meridor, a senior official in Eisenkot's party, explained that a large party would attract "Likudniks" seeking a decisive outcome and help the party gain influence post-election. Internally, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, who together command about 22 seats in current polls compared to Eisenkot's 23, might challenge him. Yair Golan, while politically closer to Eisenkot, also seeks influence. Bennett and Lieberman deny any such intentions, but Eisenkot is taking no chances, believing a wider gap will legitimize his move.

Eisenkot's primary goal is to replicate the "change bloc's" 2022 self-inflicted wound on Netanyahu. By forcing a "big party" campaign, he aims to weaken Netanyahu's support among wavering right-wing parties. He also believes this increases his chances of being tasked with forming a government, even if the mandate typically goes to the party with the highest number of seats, not necessarily the largest bloc. This strategy is a trap for Netanyahu, aiming to pit him against rivals like Ofer Winter, Yaron Zelicha, and Yoez Hendel, potentially causing their votes to fall below the threshold if Netanyahu fails to secure their withdrawal before the election.

Beyond the immediate election campaign, the article highlights a rare scenario that could unfold after October 27th if no clear majority emerges. The official results will be published a week after the election, giving the President another week to decide whom to task with forming a government. The first candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14, and if they fail, the President can assign the task to another candidate or declare that government formation is impossible. This could lead to three months of uncertainty.

The 26th Knesset is scheduled to convene on November 10th, even before a new government is formed. This could create a situation where the "change bloc" has a Knesset majority but cannot form a government. A crucial early move would be the election of a Knesset Speaker. With 61 active supporters, the bloc could potentially change the Speaker, a move with significant political and institutional implications. The new Knesset can also initiate legislation, form committees, and exercise parliamentary oversight, potentially advancing new laws on conscription, establishing a state inquiry commission for the October 7th events, or limiting terms, even before a new government is sworn in. While initiating legislation is possible, completing it before a government is formed or the Knesset dissolves remains a challenge. If no bloc secures 61 seats, the election results will be just the beginning of a prolonged political struggle, with the Knesset potentially becoming the central arena for this conflict.