Eisenkot's Strategy Aims to Force Netanyahu Into Election Battle

Gadi Eisenkot is launching a campaign to establish the largest party, aiming to strengthen his position and weaken rivals. This strategy seeks to significantly outpace potential future challengers within the opposition and, crucially, to compel Benjamin Netanyahu into a contest for party size. Such a competition risks weakening right-wing parties close to the electoral threshold, potentially creating an unusual political situation post-election.

The article draws a parallel to the 2022 elections, where the failure of Meretz and Labor to unite and Yair Lapid's focus on growing his own party led to the loss of nearly 300,000 votes, equivalent to seven Knesset seats, cast for parties that did not pass the electoral barrier. Eisenkot faces a similar dilemma regarding potentially gaining support at the expense of allies.

Shaul Meridor, a senior figure in Eisenkot's party, explained the campaign's rationale: a large party can attract Likud voters seeking stability and bolster Eisenkot's post-election standing. Further motivations include consolidating leadership within the opposition, as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, who together poll 22 seats compared to Eisenkot's 23, might challenge his leadership. Yair Golan, though politically aligned, also seeks influence.

Eisenkot aims to prevent any attempts to challenge his leadership by establishing a significant lead over competitors. More importantly, he seeks to provoke Netanyahu into repeating a past mistake by engaging in a battle for the largest party, potentially drawing votes away from smaller right-wing factions like those of Ofer Winter, Yoaz Hendel, and others. If Netanyahu fails to convince Winter to withdraw, hundreds of thousands of votes could be lost, this time within the right-wing bloc.

While Bezalel Smotrich's party is currently projected to pass the electoral threshold, political forecasts in Israel have been known to be inaccurate. The election results on October 27 could lead to a prolonged government formation period, potentially lasting months. Following the official results, the president will task a candidate with forming a government, granting them 28 days, extendable by 14. If unsuccessful, another candidate may be given the chance.

An unusual scenario may arise on November 10 when the 26th Knesset convenes before a government is formed. The opposition bloc could hold a Knesset majority but be unable to form a government. This could lead to the election of a Knesset speaker, a crucial position that is difficult to change later. The new Knesset could initiate legislation, including on army conscription, establishing a state commission of inquiry for the October 7 events, or limiting terms for certain positions, even before a new government is sworn in.

This situation could result in Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister while the opposition bloc controls the Knesset's agenda. The article emphasizes that in Israel, the largest party does not automatically form the government, and a caretaker government can continue to function. The election outcome on October 27 may only mark the beginning of a political struggle, with the final government formation potentially taking months.