Israeli Election Polls Show Significant Undecided Vote Three Weeks Out
Translated & summarized from Israel Hayom by baba
With three weeks until the elections, 26 mandates are undecided, impacting poll results. A survey shows varying voter confidence levels, with Likud voters being the most certain. Campaigns are strategizing to capture these undecided votes, with projections showing Gadi Eisenkot between 17-29 mandates and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud between 19-25. Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly targeting the "Am Israel" campaign, while the "change bloc" plans a protest demanding an inquiry.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Approximately 26 mandates remain undecided three weeks before the Israeli elections, influencing poll volatility.
- Voter confidence surveys show Likud supporters at 90% certainty, while Gadi Eisenkot's supporters are at 71%.
- Campaigns are strategizing to win over undecided voters, with projections showing Gadi Eisenkot between 17-29 mandates.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud is projected to receive between 19 and 25 mandates.
- The "Am Israel" campaign is reportedly a focus of Prime Minister Netanyahu's strategy.
- The "change bloc" plans a large protest demanding a state commission of inquiry before the election.
With three weeks remaining until the elections, a significant portion of the electorate, approximately 26 mandates, remains undecided, potentially explaining the wide fluctuations seen in recent polls. This means nearly a fifth of those surveyed have not definitively chosen a party, with an additional six mandates yet to solidify their opinions. This uncertainty suggests that critical strategic errors by parties are likely in the coming weeks.
A special survey examined voter confidence, revealing that Likud voters exhibit 90% certainty in their choice, while supporters of Bezalel Smotrich show 86% confidence. In contrast, Gadi Eisenkot's supporters have 71% certainty, and Naftali Bennett's voters show only 59% confidence, with other candidates like Winter and Zelichandler reporting even lower figures.
The analysis also explored potential alternative choices for undecided voters, projecting minimum and maximum mandate ranges for each party. For the Netanyahu bloc, success hinges on attracting right-wing voters who are not staunchly pro-Netanyahu. The "Am Israel" campaign is reportedly planning to promote "Winter specifically," aiming to offer a right-wing alternative that is not aligned with Netanyahu, acknowledging the loss of hardline pro-Netanyahu voters but seeking a new strategy.
Projected mandate ranges show Gadi Eisenkot between 17 and 29, Naftali Bennett between 6 and 16, and the Likud between 19 and 25. Bezalel Smotrich is projected between 4 and 9 mandates. The article notes that past elections have shown surprises are possible, especially with the election date approaching and the electoral threshold looming.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly shifted his campaign focus, targeting "Am Israel" due to past statements by its number two candidate, Yosef Haddad. The article suggests the focus should be on the validity of the statements rather than the person attacked, noting Haddad's background as a disabled IDF veteran and a torchlighter. The piece also draws parallels to past elections, citing Bezalel Smotrich's refusal to join a coalition with Ra'am in 2021, which ultimately led to the Bennett-Lapid government and, in retrospect, may have benefited Netanyahu. The article suggests that the Netanyahu bloc needs right-wing support that is not exclusively "Bibist" (pro-Netanyahu).
Regarding the "change bloc," a large demonstration is planned for the Saturday before the election demanding a state commission of inquiry. The article critiques this timing and focus, suggesting it alienates potential voters rather than persuading them. It also references a disturbing quote from a released hostage, Avinatan Orr, about potential future violence, urging its display at the IDF General Staff.
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