Israeli Election Forecast: Undecided Voters and Campaign Pitfalls

With just three weeks until the election, Israeli political commentator the commentator warns that the "real elections" are just beginning, highlighting a significant bloc of undecided voters. In his column for Israel Hayom, the commentator analyzes polling data, suggesting that approximately 26 seats could shift between parties, with an additional six seats belonging to voters who have not yet made a decision. He emphasizes that with such a large proportion of undecided voters, any campaign misstep could have amplified consequences.

The commentator's analysis, based on a recent study, also examined voter confidence. He found that 90% of Likud voters and 86% of Otzma Yehudit voters are certain of their choice. In contrast, confidence levels are lower among voters for Gadi Eisenkot's "Yash" party at 71% and Naftali Bennett's party at 59%. The commentator also presented potential seat ranges for various parties, with Eisenkot's party fluctuating between 17 and 29 seats, Bennett's between 6 and 16, Likud between 19 and 25, and Religious Zionism between 4 and 9 seats. The commentator asserts that even with voters largely staying within their blocs, the closeness of the race and the looming electoral threshold mean that "everything is still flexible."

The commentator criticizes the aggressive campaign tactics of both major political blocs, labeling them "overkill" and suggesting they might alienate undecided voters. Regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the commentator focuses on recent attacks against Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party, stemming from past statements by Yosef Haddad, who is second on the party's list. The commentator posits that Netanyahu recognizes Vinter will not be subservient, drawing parallels to past conflicts with Bezalel Smotrich and Naftali Bennett. He suggests that Netanyahu's bloc might benefit from a right-wing party not fully aligned with him, while Vinter's party aims to position itself as right-wing but independent of Netanyahu.

The commentator also directs criticism at the "change bloc," referencing a planned protest in Hostages Square concerning a state inquiry commission. He argues that the campaign should have focused on different issues to appeal to undecided voters. Finally, the commentator addresses the ongoing security threats facing Israel, marking three years since the October 7th massacre. He recounts a statement from a Hamas militant to hostage Avinatan Or, suggesting Israelis should leave the country as the massacre could recur. The commentator draws parallels to historical Jewish experiences, asserting that the threat from Israel's enemies persists, but concludes that despite calls for Israelis to leave, "we've tried Europe before, in the end, we are not the ones who will have to pack."