Israeli Election Polls Highly Unpredictable Due to Voter Turnout Variables

With just three weeks until the election on October 27, 2026, Israeli political polls are showing significant fluctuations, making predictions difficult. Political correspondent Daphna Liel explains that while polls measure stated intentions, actual election results depend on last-minute decisions, pressures, and events. The "magic number" for the change bloc is a high voter turnout among their supporters, aiming for over 76% in the Sharon, Tel Aviv, and Haifa regions.

Past elections demonstrate how late shifts can dramatically alter outcomes. In 2015, the Zionist Union was predicted to lead, but a last-minute surge to the Likud, driven by right-wing voters consolidating, resulted in an opposite outcome. Similarly, in April 2019, the two largest parties, Likud and Blue and White, gained significant ground from smaller parties in the final days before the election.

Another critical factor is parties clearing the electoral threshold of 3.25%. In 2019, the New Right, led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, narrowly missed this mark by just 1,461 votes, illustrating how a small percentage difference can translate into a significant loss of seats and impact the overall map. The 2022 election showed that even accurate vote counts can lead to a skewed seat distribution, with nearly 300,000 votes for Meretz and Balad effectively nullified, resulting in Netanyahu's bloc securing 64 seats.

Voter turnout, particularly among the Arab and Haredi communities, remains a major unknown. A higher turnout in the Arab sector, which saw a jump from 44.6% in 2021 to 53.2% in 2022, could significantly influence coalition possibilities, potentially requiring parties like Ra'am. For Haredi voters, disappointment over the conscription issue clashes with concerns about the alternative, making their turnout unpredictable. The article also notes the potential impact of new protest parties and Israelis living abroad.

Currently, about 10.3% of voters remain undecided, a substantial figure in a close election. Pollsters often differ in how they categorize these undecided voters, contributing to the volatility seen in surveys. The final decision on who will form the next government will likely be made by voters at the ballot box on election day.