Polls Show Tight Race, Key Factors Could Sway Election Outcome

With three weeks until the election, strategic advisor Roni Hersh has identified two critical variables that could significantly alter the political map: Arab voter turnout and the electoral performance of Ofer Winther. Hersh stated that an increase in voter participation within the Arab community could fundamentally change the distribution of Knesset seats. Simultaneously, Winther's ability to cross the electoral threshold is crucial for the right-wing bloc.

Hersh expressed skepticism about poll results showing Winther securing five seats, emphasizing that his fluctuating performance, sometimes above and sometimes below the threshold, indicates instability. He believes Winther has a core support of two to three seats, with additional votes potentially coming from momentum or from right-wing voters seeking an alternative to Itamar Ben-Gvir or Bezalel Smotrich. If Winther fails to enter the Knesset, taking two to three seats with him, it could disrupt the right-wing bloc's calculations, potentially making him the "next Meretz," a party whose failure to pass the threshold impacted an entire bloc's fate.

The advisor also noted that opposition parties' hopes of attracting voters from Benjamin Netanyahu's camp have not materialized significantly. He described this as "very bad news for the change bloc," as parties like those led by Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, and Avigdor Lieberman are primarily competing amongst themselves rather than drawing from the rival bloc. Hersh suggested that decisions regarding Netanyahu, particularly in light of October 7th, have largely been made by voters, and any shift is unlikely in the final weeks.

Hersh pointed to another factor: former Likud voters who might abstain from voting altogether. He suggested that a small change in turnout among these voters, perhaps motivated by a desire to "punish" Netanyahu or feeling that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich already have sufficient support, could significantly alter the election results. The second major variable, according to Hersh, is the Arab community, whose interest in replacing Netanyahu makes their turnout a significant factor in determining the Knesset's power balance.

Despite these variables, Hersh reiterated that Winther's candidacy is the central headline, with other factors being relatively stable. He anticipates that regardless of whether a clear majority emerges, politicians will strive to avoid another election cycle. Hersh believes a government will be formed, citing the need for stability and the security situation as driving forces, suggesting that politicians may compromise on previous stances to achieve this outcome.