Warnings Ignored: Netanyahu Was Alerted to Pre-Oct. 7 Threats

Newly revealed documents and testimonies indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received multiple warnings in the months leading up to the October 7th Hamas attack, but allegedly reacted with skepticism and dismissed requests for urgent meetings. The reports detail letters from former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as from the head of the IDF's Intelligence Directorate, Amit Saar, highlighting concerns about eroding deterrence and enemies identifying internal Israeli divisions as an opportunity to strike.

One significant warning came on March 21, 2023, when Halevi sent a letter to Netanyahu stating that Israel's enemies were recognizing an opportunity to advance offensive plans due to weakening deterrence. He requested a meeting to discuss the matter, but no such discussion took place. Similarly, Saar warned in March that enemies were deliberating whether to wait for Israel to weaken or act against it, and later, in July, warned that the political crisis was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to take risks against Israel.

Gallant publicly warned of the internal rifts penetrating the IDF and security bodies in late March, leading to his dismissal by Netanyahu. Following this, Netanyahu's spokesperson, Topaz Lok, drafted a statement announcing a freeze on legislative moves and the defense minister's tenure until after the holidays, along with an offer to begin dialogue. Netanyahu considered publishing it but ultimately did not.

Further warnings included a July letter from Halevi cautioning about entering a dangerous zone due to the crisis within the IDF and a change in the enemy's perception of Israeli deterrence. Netanyahu's reported response was dismissive, stating, "It's not us! They should talk to those in Kaplan." In August, committee discussions warned of being "on the brink of the perfect storm" and a multi-front war. A seven-page letter from Gallant on September 7, exactly one month before the attack, reiterated that the internal crisis was deepening Israel's image problem among enemies, exacerbating the deterrence damage, and increasing the likelihood of escalation.

Testimonies suggest Netanyahu viewed these warnings with suspicion, believing security officials aimed to thwart his judicial reform agenda. He reportedly told IDF generals in July, "I put 80 billion shekels a year on you, and you're staging a rebellion against me." Despite these repeated alerts, requests for urgent meetings from Halevi, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and Mossad head David Barnea were often denied or postponed. The article also notes that while the security establishment warned of strategic threats, their failure to translate these into operational readiness to prevent a surprise attack is also under scrutiny.