Likud Pushes Netanyahu's Narrative of No Prior Warnings for Oct. 7 Attack

On the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel's Likud party reiterated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claim that he received no prior warning of the impending assault. The party placed blame for the security failure on intelligence agencies, despite numerous reports indicating that Netanyahu or his office had received warnings, some directly concerning Gaza. A Likud statement asserted that Netanyahu "did not receive any prior warning before October 7 regarding an attack by Hamas from the Gaza Strip or from Hamas." The party accused Channel 12 of broadcasting "false political propaganda" aimed at "overthrowing the right-wing government" and establishing one that supports a Palestinian state.

Likud cited documents Netanyahu submitted to the State Comptroller, claiming that heads of security agencies had repeatedly stated before the attack that Hamas was deterred and seeking to maintain calm in Gaza. The party referenced intelligence reports from May and July 2023, suggesting Hamas was seeking stability in Gaza and that the primary threat was from Lebanon. It also quoted military intelligence and Shin Bet assessments from October 2023 indicating Hamas's desire for calm and stability in exchange for concessions.

According to Likud's account, Netanyahu first learned of the Hamas attack at 6:29 AM on October 7. The party claimed that entities aware of real-time indicators during the night before the attack did nothing and failed to inform the police, security forces, residents near Gaza, soldiers, or the public. Likud stated that if Netanyahu had been informed in real-time, the outcome would have been different.

This narrative contradicts numerous reports from Israeli and American media outlets, including Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Atlantic. These reports indicated that Netanyahu received repeated warnings from Israeli security services and officials in Egypt and the UAE about a potential confrontation, with some specifically addressing Gaza and Hamas. Haaretz reported that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu about Yahya Sinwar planning a "major move" that could destabilize the region and harm the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu reportedly downplayed the warning, believing Hamas was focused on the West Bank, and did not inform security chiefs of the conversation. The UAE did not deny the call.

Official documents also revealed that Netanyahu received four separate warning reports between March and July 2023 from military intelligence, detailing how Israel's adversaries viewed its internal divisions and declining social and military cohesion as an opportunity. The head of military intelligence research, Amit Saar, warned that adversaries were considering whether to "sit on the fence and let Israel continue to weaken itself, or take initiatives that worsen its situation." Former Shin Bet head Ronen Bar reportedly warned Netanyahu in May 2023 of a future confrontation in Gaza, stating, "Hamas is the next challenge before us, and there will be no escape from a confrontation in Gaza." Netanyahu allegedly responded that there was a "strong deterrence balance" against Hamas. His office later denied this, claiming Bar himself emphasized Hamas's deterrence and desire for stability.

Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel reportedly visited Israel 11 days before the attack and warned of a major Hamas assault, stating, "Gaza will explode in your faces" if Israel did not change its policy. Egyptian officials also told The Wall Street Journal that Kamel contacted Netanyahu in early October 2023, warning of an imminent attack from Gaza after Israel allegedly ignored two prior Egyptian warnings. Netanyahu's office denied that the Prime Minister received any warning from Kamel, stating they did not meet or speak in the months prior to the attack.

Concurrently, Likud highlighted Netanyahu's wartime achievements, including the ground operation in Gaza and assassinations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, attributing these to his leadership despite internal and external pressures. The party accused Channel 12 of attempting to "engineer consciousness" during the election campaign and linked its coverage to efforts to oust Netanyahu's government. The political dispute over responsibility for the October 7 failure continues, with Netanyahu so far refusing to establish a fully empowered independent investigative committee.