Netanyahu Was Warned of War Before Oct. 7, Documents Reveal

Newly revealed documents and testimonies indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received multiple warnings from top security officials in the months leading up to the October 7th Hamas attacks, expressing concerns about a potential war and the erosion of Israel's deterrence due to internal divisions. These warnings included letters from former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, highlighting the risk of enemies exploiting Israel's internal rifts.

Key warnings began as early as March 2023. Halevi sent a letter on March 21st cautioning that "enemies identify an opportunity" and that deterrence was weakening. He requested a meeting to discuss the matter, but no such discussion took place. On March 25th, Gallant publicly warned that the societal rift was penetrating the IDF and security bodies, endangering the country. The following day, a draft statement by Netanyahu's spokesperson Topaz Lok proposing to freeze legislative moves and the defense minister's tenure was prepared but never published.

Further alerts were issued throughout the summer. On July 16th, the head of the IDF's Research Division, Amit Saar, warned that the political crisis was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to act against Israel. Halevi and Gallant met with Netanyahu on July 18th to urge him to stop the judicial overhaul, and Halevi sent another warning letter on July 23rd. Netanyahu's response to this letter was reportedly, "It's not us! Talk to those in Kaplan." Shin Bet head Ronen Bar also warned of impending war via a secure line.

Despite repeated attempts by security chiefs to meet with Netanyahu, their requests were often denied. One senior official advised against such meetings, fearing leaks and political damage. Netanyahu reportedly suspected that the security officials were trying to undermine his government and the judicial reform. In a July meeting with generals, Netanyahu stated, "I put 80 billion shekels a year on you, and you're staging a rebellion against me."

Additional warnings came in August from Bar, who described Israel being on the "eve of the perfect storm," and from Gadi Eisenkot, who wrote to Netanyahu about a significant decline in the IDF's readiness and cohesion, urging a 18-month freeze on controversial legislation. On September 7th, exactly one month before the attacks, Gallant sent a seven-page letter to Netanyahu detailing how the internal crisis was deepening the erosion of Israel's image among enemies, exacerbating the damage to deterrence, and increasing the likelihood of escalation.

While the article details the warnings given to Netanyahu and his reactions, it also notes that the security establishment bears responsibility for translating strategic alerts into operational readiness to prevent a surprise attack. A statement from Netanyahu's office asserted that he received no prior warning of a Hamas attack from Gaza, and that security officials had repeatedly claimed Hamas was deterred and seeking a settlement.