Poll Shows Israeli Coalition Falling Short of Majority

A pre-election poll released on October 5, 2026, by Israel's Channel 12 indicates that the current ruling coalition would secure only 49 seats in the Knesset. This finding aligns with a similar survey conducted by Kan channel. The poll also revealed a significant drop in support for Ofer Winter's party, which now garners 1.5% of the vote, falling short of the 3.25% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Despite the struggles of Winter's party, the governing coalition's overall position remains weak. The parties within the coalition collectively would win 49 seats. In contrast, the Zionist opposition is projected to win 54 seats. The "United" list is expected to gain 8 seats following recent changes and candidate withdrawals, while the Ra'am party secured 5 seats.

To form a government, Zionist parties would require the support of two Arab parties, as an alliance with Ra'am alone would be insufficient. Other political forces show "Yashar" leading with 23 seats, followed by "Likud" with 21 seats, and the "Together" bloc holding 13 seats. The "Democrats" and NDI parties are each projected to win 9 seats. The religious parties "Yahadut HaTorah" and Shas together would secure 15 seats. Bezalel Smotrich's political faction is expected to win 7 seats, and the bloc of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Avi Feiglin would gain 6 seats.

In personal standings, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails the leader of "Yashar" but leads other contenders. Regarding responsibility for the events of October 7, 25% of respondents blamed the government primarily, 17% blamed the army, and 47% divided responsibility equally between the two. An additional 11% were undecided.