New Poll Shows Opposition Gaining, Netanyahu's Likud Slightly Stronger

A new poll released by Channel 12 News indicates that if elections were held today, the Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, would emerge as the largest party with 23 seats. The Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to gain strength, securing 21 seats. The opposition bloc as a whole is strengthening, gaining one seat compared to the previous poll, and would collectively hold 67 seats, while the current coalition would have 49 seats.

Several other parties also saw shifts in the poll. Naftali Bennett's Democrats would receive 13 seats, Yair Golan's Democrats 9 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu 9 seats. The Joint List is projected to gain 8 seats, and United Torah Judaism would maintain its strength with 8 seats. Shas would receive 7 seats, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit would strengthen to 7 seats, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity would gain 6 seats. Ra'am would hold steady with 5 seats, and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's HaMeyulamanim VeHaKalkalit HaChadasha would secure 4 seats.

Notably, Ofer Vinter's Amcha Israel party fell below the electoral threshold, receiving only 1.5% of the vote. Other parties, including Motty Leitner's HaChizikim, Benny Gantz's Blue and White, and the remaining parties, failed to cross the threshold.

Regarding leadership, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister with 41% compared to Netanyahu's 38%. However, Netanyahu leads Naftali Bennett (37%) and Avigdor Lieberman (26%) in head-to-head comparisons.

Three years after the outbreak of the war, the poll also revealed public sentiment regarding accountability for the October 7th failures. A majority of the public (66%) supports the establishment of a state commission of inquiry, while 21% oppose it. When asked about responsibility for the October 7th failures, 25% of the public blamed the government, 17% blamed the military, and 47% blamed both equally. A significant 65% of respondents believe Prime Minister Netanyahu bears "considerable responsibility" for the failures, with an additional 22% believing he bears some responsibility.