New Poll Shows Opposition Gaining, Netanyahu's Party Stable

A new poll released by Channel 12 News indicates a shift in the Israeli political landscape, with the opposition bloc strengthening and the "Amcha Israel" party, led by Ofer Winter, falling below the electoral threshold. If elections were held today for the 26th Knesset, Yashar, headed by Gadi Eisenkot, would emerge as the largest party with 23 mandates. The Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to gain seats, reaching 21 mandates, while Naftali Bennett's party would maintain its current strength with 13 mandates.

Other parties showing gains or maintaining their standing include the Joint List (8 mandates), United Torah Judaism (8 mandates), Shas (7 mandates), Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit (7 mandates), and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity (6 mandates). Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is expected to secure 5 mandates, and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's "HaMiluimnikim" party would remain above the threshold with 4 mandates. Falling below the threshold are Amcha Israel (1.5%), the Haredi Public party (0.6%), and Benny Gantz's Blue and White (0.5%).

The poll also reveals shifts in bloc support. The bloc opposing Netanyahu is projected to gain one mandate, reaching a total of 67 mandates (54 from Zionist parties and 13 from Arab parties). The current coalition would hold 49 mandates, with Hendel and Zelekha's party forming a "third bloc" with 4 mandates.

Regarding leadership suitability, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in preference for prime minister, with 41% support compared to Netanyahu's 38%. Netanyahu, however, leads Naftali Bennett (41% vs. 37%) and Avigdor Lieberman (43% vs. 26%).

In a separate question concerning the October 7th failures, three years after the war, a majority of the public (66%) supports the establishment of a state commission of inquiry. The poll indicates that 65% of respondents believe Prime Minister Netanyahu bears significant responsibility for the failures, with an additional 22% believing he has some responsibility. Among coalition voters, however, only 27% believe Netanyahu has significant responsibility, while 48% believe his responsibility is minor.