Israel Received Multiple Warnings Before October 7th Attack

Israel received a series of warnings from various sources in September 2023, weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, which were reportedly misinterpreted or not acted upon sufficiently. These alerts originated from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the intelligence services of the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt's intelligence chief.

The first warning came around September 14th, when former Fatah official Soufan Abu Zaida conveyed a message from Sinwar to Israeli security forces. This message, interpreted as a potential "earthquake" regarding prisoners and missing persons, was linked by Israeli intelligence to a new development concerning Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was held in Iraq. An Iranian official had reportedly proposed that Hamas take responsibility for negotiating Tsurkov's release, a move that seemed to align with Sinwar's message.

Several days later, the UAE's intelligence service warned Israeli intelligence of potential violent action by Hamas by the end of September. According to sources, after September ended without incident, Israeli officials told their Emirati counterparts that their source was mistaken. However, the October 7th attack occurred shortly thereafter. Additionally, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed reportedly issued a direct, urgent warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the situation, though Netanyahu's office has denied receiving such a warning before October 7th, stating that any relevant information would have been passed through standard intelligence channels.

Further warnings came from Egypt. On September 26th, Egypt's intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, reportedly made a secret visit to Israel, warning Israeli officials that Hamas was preparing for a significant attack and that the window to prevent escalation was closing. This visit, lasting only about 67 minutes, occurred shortly before Netanyahu's speech commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. In the days leading up to October 7th, including as late as October 5th, Egypt and Jordan reportedly continued to relay messages to Israel about the potential for escalation in Gaza.

Following the attack, Egyptian sources told Israeli media that Egypt had warned Netanyahu three days prior about Hamas's "formidable preparations." This aligns with a statement made by U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, who said Egypt had warned Israel about the possibility of such an event three days before October 7th. However, Netanyahu's office has vehemently denied these claims, calling them false and recycled, and stated that no such warning was received from the UAE or directly from Egypt's intelligence chief prior to the attack.