Israel Received Multiple Warnings Before October 7th Attack

Israel received a series of warnings from various sources in September 2023, weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, which were reportedly misinterpreted or not acted upon sufficiently, according to multiple reports. These warnings highlight the perceived depth of Israel's intelligence failure leading up to the unprecedented assault.

The first warning came around mid-September when a senior Fatah official, Soufan Abu Zeida, conveyed a message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to the Israeli security establishment. The message, relayed through a Palestinian intermediary, spoke of an impending "earthquake" concerning prisoners and missing persons. Israeli intelligence interpreted this message as being linked to the situation of Israeli-American researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was being held in Iraq by a pro-Iranian organization, and for whom Hamas was reportedly offered a role in negotiations for her release.

Shortly after Sinwar's message, the intelligence services of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) alerted Israeli intelligence to the possibility of a violent action by Hamas before the end of September. This warning was reportedly dismissed by Israeli officials who, at the end of the month, told their Emirati counterparts that "nothing happened." However, according to reports, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed later conveyed a direct, urgent warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though Netanyahu's office has denied receiving such a warning before October 7th, stating that any relevant information would have been passed through standard intelligence channels.

Further warnings came from Egyptian intelligence. In late September, the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, reportedly made a secret visit to Israel, warning Israeli officials that Hamas was preparing for a "significant attack" and that the window to prevent escalation was closing. Reports indicate this visit was brief, coinciding with Netanyahu's speech marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. In the days immediately preceding the attack, Egypt and Jordan reportedly continued to send messages to Israel about the potential for escalation in Gaza.

Despite these warnings, the Israeli response was reportedly that the situation was under control, with the focus being on the West Bank rather than Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office has strongly denied some of the reporting, calling claims of specific warnings "false" and accusing some outlets of recycling denied information to mislead the public. The office also stated that Netanyahu did not meet or speak with Abbas Kamel prior to October 7th.